Dejected Brisbane defender Darcy Gardiner after the Lions’ semi-final loss to the Bulldogs last year. Photo: AFL MEDIA
It’s somehow grimly appropriate that Brisbane has to overcome Richmond on Thursday night at the Gabba to progress any further in AFL season 2022. No team has caused the Lions more grief over the years than the Tigers.
Richmond clocked up 15 straight wins over Brisbane between 2009 and 2020. The Lions finally threw off the yoke of history when they triumphantly downed the Tigers in the 2020 qualifying final.
At that moment, Brisbane stood just two more home victories from a premiership in the Covid-stricken season. Instead, though, it would be the Lions stumbling badly in a preliminary final as Richmond recovered to win a historic Gabba grand final.
And the Tigers are still messing with Brisbane, just four weeks ago retrieving a seven-goal deficit to mow the Lions down on the MCG. Now they’re in a position to deliver a finals knockout blow. Again.
Brisbane under Chris Fagan has done a wonderful job over four years now rising from a competition easybeat to a consistently strong home and away team. But its consistent finals failures are a massive albatross hanging around its neck.
Another September loss would leave Brisbane’s finals record under Fagan a miserable 1-6. And just as the tennis scoreline that imitates, for the Lions that might well be game, set and match for this playing group’s genuine attempts to land a premiership.
Brisbane couldn’t get mission accomplished for three seasons with the benefit of a top four finish and a double chance. Now it’s sudden death all the way. And without even a consistent record to offer some badly-needed confidence.
Since it was 8-1 after nine rounds, Brisbane has gone at 7-6, barely 50 per cent. And the losses have been significant. A shock defeat to Hawthorn at the difficult, unfriendly surrounds of Launceston. Two 10-goal thumpings against Melbourne, which also disposed of the Lions in a final last year. And that psychologically-scarring recent loss to Richmond.
Speaking of which, Brisbane’s psychological state this week will hardly have been helped by the Dayne Zorko affair.
The Lions have been roundly criticised for not sending a strong enough message to their skipper after his disgraceful personal sledge to Melbourne’s Harrison Petty. But it’s Zorko’s use of such below-the-belt tactics in the first place, and the acute sense of desperation they convey, which makes you question, not for the first time, the strength of Brisbane’s on-field leadership.
Harris Andrews is Zorko’s vice-captain. He’s had his own form issues to deal with at times of late. There’s six other members of Brisbane’s leadership group – Daniel Rich, Darcy Gardiner, Ryan Lester, Lachie Neale, Lincoln McCarthy and Hugh McCluggage.
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The other great talents in the Lions’ line-up, the likes of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Charlie Cameron, tend to fall under the “mercurial” descriptor.
They’re fine players all, but do any of them present that tougher presence which will, when a situation demands, turn the tide and drag a whole team along with them? Arguably Brisbane’s edgiest, most outspoken types, Mitch Robinson and Rhys Mathieson, are also right now fringe players, which is problematic.
In keeping with that lack of steel, Brisbane continues to score heavily but has become more prone to leaking defensively.
For four seasons now, the Lions have never ranked lower than third for points scored, and this year were second, but at the same time their points against ranking slipped to 10th from fifth.
Is that significant? It is when you consider that the last 10 premiership teams have all been ranked in the top six at least for that statistic. And that every other team in the final eight bar the Western Bulldogs this season fares significantly better defensively.
Brisbane ranks a lowly 15th on the tackle differentials, and only six teams concede more goals than the Lions per inside 50 entry, and five of those are in the bottom six on the AFL ladder.
Even those stats aren’t as stark as the following, however. Which is that while Brisbane over the past four seasons under Fagan has made the Gabba a fortress again during the home and away rounds, its record 37-4, or 90 per cent, its finals record at the same venue is 1-4, or 20 per cent.
That’s a stark difference indeed. One which suggests there’s something amiss come the really serious stuff of September. Is that record playing on Brisbane minds? Are the Lions not tough enough in the white heat of finals action. Perhaps just not good enough? Or a combination of all those factors?
So what better way for Brisbane to sweep aside the doubts, the uncertainties and to reverse the tide than to deal with not only their nemesis, but also one of the most capable and experienced outfits lurking in the bottom half of the eight finals have known for a long, long time.
Slay the Tigers on Thursday night and Brisbane’s 2022 campaign could be instantly revived. Bow out yet again, and who knows just when we might see the Lions back in action at the pointy end of the year?
This article first appeared at ESPN.
