Don Pyke (left) and Ken Hinkley, coaches under pressure. South Australia might implode if the Crows and Port lose this week
1. Close your eyes for a second and imagine an AFL world where the so-called “wildcard week” finals supplement is in place.
Now try to think of a team currently sitting outside the top eight that truly deserves a shot at September glory. Can’t find one? You’re not alone.
In his post-match analysis of Fremantle’s insipid performance against the Western Bulldogs, Ross Lyon mused that there is “a lot of mediocrity” in the competition right now. His Dockers, as he readily conceded, are part of the problem.
“There’s a lot of mediocrity around and we sit in that,” a typically blunt Lyon said. “All the other teams that had opportunities didn’t take it. I think there will be a number of coaches as disappointed as I am.”
Some might consider Lyon’s comments to be another attempt to deflect some of the heat away from his out-of-form team – kind of like when certain issues within the game are referred to by key figures as a “reflection of wider society”.
But whether or not the comment was tactical doesn’t really matter. Lyon was spot on.
From eighth-placed Adelaide through to third-from-bottom Carlton, there are nine teams that have all shown glimpses of potential at various stages of the season without mounting a genuine case for playing finals football.
Port Adelaide currently occupies what would be the final “wildcard” spot. It is level on eight wins with Hawthorn, Fremantle and St Kilda with four rounds left in the home-and-away season.
An extra couple of finals places in a 10-team system – which, in reality, is all the AFL’s prospective mutated adaptation of the American “wildcard” process actually amounts to – might add a touch of excitement to the final month of the season for fans of those clubs.
But would any of those sides be capable of doing any real damage, let alone mounting a serious flag push?
Only one team this decade (Port Adelaide 2018) has finished in 10th spot and won more than half of its games. The rest have won 11 or fewer, and the Western Bulldogs of 2011 won only nine (in a 17-team competition that year).
Nevertheless, expect the “wildcard” discussion to rear its ugly head again as the 2019 finals series draws nearer – and don’t be surprised to see the finals supplement introduced next year.
2. Having said all that – brace yourselves for an almighty contradiction – it might not be all bad if the new system was in place and Carlton was to pull off a late-season miracle and sneak in as a “wildcard” finals entrant this year.
The Blues are finally worth watching again, unlike the aforementioned sides, and have a bunch of potential future stars playing with an energy that makes even the neutrals switch on the TV and take notice.
If they knock over West Coast this week, don’t be surprised if there is a major press conference called at Ikon Park next week.
The case put forward by caretaker coach David Teague to continue in the full-time job could hardly be any stronger so far.
A win over the reigning premier and serious flag contender like the Eagles would make it almost impossible to ignore. However, while success-starved fans have understandably been seduced, the board and club heavyweights are still yet to make a call.
A tough run home – West Coast, Richmond, St Kilda and Geelong – could affect their decision-making (and would almost certainly destroy that hypothetical push for a “wildcard” berth).
What we do know is that the players sound happy, the game plan is standing up, and the wins under Teague have come at a strike rate (71 per cent) that Carlton hasn’t bettered over a full season since claiming the 1995 premiership.
3. South Australia might just implode if the Crows and Port lose this week.
Both clubs have dropped four of their last five matches and look increasingly likely to miss the finals as the weeks go by.
They say possession is nine-tenths of the law, and while the Crows have held a top-eight spot since round seven, the grip is loosening.
A loss to rejuvenated St Kilda at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night would set off all sorts of alarm bells, despite what Crows powerbrokers Rob Chapman and Mark Ricciuto have had to say about Don Pyke, whose contract runs to the end of 2021.
The coach faces tough calls on a host of experienced players this week after dropping Eddie Betts (and Hugh Greenwood) before the defeat to Carlton. Taylor Walker is among those still in the firing line.
The club must make even bigger decisions at season’s end, with a large contingent of players who will be the wrong side of 30 next year.
Up the road at Alberton, Port Adelaide is all over the shop. Ken Hinkley has led the club to just one finals appearance (a loss to West Coast) in the last five years, and the Power appear likely to miss out again.
President David Koch fanned the flames around the coaching hot seat when he spoke publicly about an end-of-season review, and self-described “Norwood flog” Keith Thomas (also the chief executive) has taken the blame for the Power’s disconnect with fans.
Tom Rockliff, for what it’s worth, says the playing group still has “complete faith” in Hinkley.
Replacing the Crows in the top eight would be a welcome tonic to Port’s woes, but Essendon presents a major hurdle at Marvel Stadium on Saturday. The return of co-captain Ollie Wines from a fractured thumb would help the Power’s chances, if he is cleared to play.
It looms as a massive weekend for the under-fire SA clubs.
4. Beware the Giants as they embark on a final month of the home-and-away season that should – repeat, should – ensure smooth passage to a home final in week one.
If other results fall their way, they could even gate-crash the top four.
GWS doesn’t leave Giants Stadium over the next three weeks, and will start favourite in home matches against crosstown rival Sydney, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs. Each of those opponents currently sit outside the top eight.
Then there is a final-round trip north to Gold Coast – an assignment which Essendon found unexpectedly tricky, but not one that should derail Leon Cameron’s side.
The Giants have lost underrated young defender Sam Taylor to a hamstring injury that could end his season, but gun midfielder Josh Kelly and tough leader Matt de Boer aren’t far off returning.
Star forward Jonathon Patton could yet be a finals wildcard despite not playing at all this season, and has reportedly returned to full training (minus contact work) in a bid to play a role in September.
Out-of-contract and in-demand onballer Stephen Coniglio is also in a race against time and would be a welcome boost to the engine room, if and when he comes back from a knee injury.
Should their big guns return, the Giants could be tough to stop when the whips are cracking next month.
5. Richmond fans heading to the MCG on Saturday night to watch the seemingly inevitable demolition of Melbourne would do well to arrive early and make a stop off next door.
The word is out that electrifying mid-season recruit Marlion Pickett is finally ready to pull on the yellow-and-black for the first time in a competitive match.
And he is set to line up for the VFL Tigers against Casey Demons at Punt Road Oval before the lights come on at the ‘G.
In May, the 27-year-old South Fremantle star broke an index finger, just days out from the mid-season draft. But Richmond had seen enough to take a chance on him, just as they had with fellow Indigenous West Australian (and PSS recruit) Sydney Stack a few months earlier.
Now fit and out of the rehab group, Pickett will get a four-week audition to prove he deserves a contract beyond this season. And if all goes well, there could even be a fairytale finals berth on the horizon.
It would cap a remarkable turnaround for a man whose life was at the crossroads when was behind bars as a teenager.
So far, six of the 13 mid-season draft selections have played at AFL level since being granted their career lifelines. Here’s hoping Pickett – a former South Fremantle teammate and close friend of Geelong weapon Tim Kelly – adds his name to the list.
