AFL football changes very quickly, and it could very easily have passed Ross Lyon by, says Ronny Lerner. Photo: AFL MEDIA

As David Teague’s career as Carlton coach seemingly enters its final unedifying death throes, the speculation about his replacement intensifies.

You can’t help but feel for Teague. Ever since the review into his footy department was called halfway through the season, he has basically been a dead man walking.

Has a second-year coach had a rougher environment to not only work within but also try and contend with to establish his coaching identity? Especially when you consider the entirety of his full-time tenure has coincided with the pandemic.

Teague was forced to inherit the assistant coaches he was given. And there has been a complete lack of support from his own club this year, with football director Chris Judd basically vacating his post a long time ago and not being replaced.

As St Kilda great Nick Riewoldt said recently, Teague was all but set up to fail.

But despite having the cards stacked against him, the unruffled Teague has carried himself with class throughout this entire undignified saga, and will no doubt find himself a role elsewhere in the industry when his time at Ikon Park is done, which could be as early as next week.

So who are the candidates in the box seat to become the Blues’ next senior coach?

Well, it now sounds as though it’s a race-in-two between outgoing Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson and former Fremantle boss Ross Lyon.

While Clarkson has been quiet as a church mouse on the prospect, there’s more than a sense of deja vu in the similarities between the way Lyon is now starting to talk about it to how Mick Malthouse was when the writing was on the wall for Brett Ratten during 2012 (and it’s quite coincidental how Lyon has only just rediscovered the itch to coach in recent weeks).

Clarkson, the four-time premiership mastermind, would be a no-brainer, with Hawthorn’s recent performances against premiership contenders Melbourne, Brisbane and Western Bulldogs exhibiting he still well and truly has the goods.

But is Lyon really the hot property he is being made out to be?

There’s no doubting that once upon a time Lyon was one of the best coaches in the AFL, having taken St Kilda and Fremantle to a combined three grand finals in the space of five seasons (four grand finals if you include the 2010 replay) on the back of impeccable defensive game plans which were built on relentless pressure.

Sure, he didn’t break through to become a premiership coach, but if the ball bounced a different way in front of Stephen Milne in 2010, Lyon might still be in charge at the Saints.

As fate would have it, he would be Fremantle coach a mere two years later.

And he had an instant impact there as well, guiding the Dockers to the second week of the finals in 2012, before taking them to their first and only grand final a year later. He would be responsible for another first for the club in 2015 when Fremantle claimed its maiden minor premiership, before losing a home preliminary final to Hawthorn.

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However, that’s where the Ross Lyon coaching story takes a dramatic turn.

The following season, the bottom completely fell out from underneath the Dockers as they made the worst start to a year by a reigning minor premier in VFL/AFL history, losing their first 10 games in 2016, on the way to a 4-18 record and a finish of 16th on the ladder.

And it didn’t get much better for Lyon after that. In fact, in his final four years at the Dockers, he could only muster a winning percentage of 33 per cent – a far cry from the 66 per cent from his first nine years as a coach.

Twelve of his 17 losses by 10 goals or more as coach came between 2016-19, including all four of his defeats by 100 points or more – and yes, he was at the helm when Geelong booted 23 consecutive goals against Freo in late 2018.

By the time next year comes around, after a two-year sojourn in the media and property industry, it will have been seven years since he took a team to a finals series. Are we just to assume that Lyon still “has it” from a coaching perspective?

It would seem like a huge leap of faith by any club to hire him in the hope that he could somehow recapture his Midas touch from such a long time ago. The game changes very quickly, and it could very easily have passed Lyon by.

Lyon’s possible hiring would also do little to dispel the perception that Carlton still suffers from a severe messiah/saviour complex.

How many times have the Blues been down this road before? Denis Pagan. Chris Judd. Mick Malthouse. And now potentially Clarkson or Lyon – and that’s just in the last 20 years.

The quick fix has all too often proved too hard to resist for the Blues, and it has never yielded results. In fact, since David Parkin retired in 2000, Ratten and Teague – two untried coaches – have been their most successful coaches. Go figure.

Of course, if Clarkson agreed to become the Blues’ senior coach, they would be crazy not to follow through with his hiring. He’s up there with Leigh Matthews, Kevin Sheedy and Allan Jeans in the conversation of greatest coach of the modern era.

But history tells us even that isn’t a guarantee for success, especially at Carlton. Pagan and Malthouse both arrived at Princes Park with similar credentials, but it ended terribly for both.

Granted, the Blues have more key building blocks to work with now than that pair were given, with Jacob Weitering, Sam Walsh and Harry McKay forming a mouth-watering, young spine.

But the biggest problem at Carlton still hasn’t been addressed – the board.

The way the place has been run for years has bordered on shambolic. Incoming president Luke Sayers has been part of a board that has seen Malthouse, Brendon Bolton and, now almost certainly Teague sacked, while Jeanne Pratt has been there since 2011, which means she has also overseen the departure of Ratten.

Einstein’s theory of doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results comes to mind.

You can bring in as many big names as you like into your club, but if adequate governance, management, and environment to foster on-field success is lacking, even Vince Lombardi would struggle to get results, let alone Clarkson or Lyon.