The AFL’s latest coaching succession plan will involve Sam Mitchell (left) and Alastair Clarkson at Hawthorn. Photo: AFL MEDIA

Coaching succession plans in the AFL tend to have a stigma attached to them, so you would be forgiven for being sceptical about the recently-announced one at Hawthorn between Alastair Clarkson and Sam Mitchell.

That cynicism probably exists mainly because of the ‘Kirribilli Agreement’ that went horribly wrong at Collingwood a decade ago between Mick Malthouse and Nathan Buckley.

The plan was for Malthouse to coach the Magpies in seasons 2010 and 2011 before assuming a ‘director of coaching’ role for the first three years of Buckley’s tenure. Suffice to say, it didn’t pan out that way.

Malthouse, and his huge ego, left the then-named Westpac Centre in a huff and would bob up at arch rival Carlton a few years later as senior coach.

Rodney Eade would fill the role as Buckley’s senior adviser that Malthouse originally agreed to.

Everything is magnified 10-fold when it involves Collingwood. But are succession plans really that disastrous? Recent history suggest they aren’t.

Since taking over the reins at Sydney from Paul Roos in 2011, John Longmire has become one of the AFL’s best coaches, winning a premiership and taking the Swans to three grand finals.

Leon Cameron has proven himself to be a very competent coach too at GWS in the eight years since Kevin Sheedy ceded control of the Giants to him, making a grand final, three preliminary finals and having them well-placed again for another era of success fuelled by a new crop of exciting youngsters.

Simon Goodwin has proven that season 2018 was no fluke, overseeing Melbourne’s rise to premiership favouritism this year and maturing into a very respected coach in his fifth year in charge after succeeding that man again Roos.

Even Buckley’s reign at Collingwood finished with a late flurry that almost saw the Magpies win a flag in 2018.

Granted, Essendon’s handover from John Worsfold to Ben Rutten was very clunkily orchestrated and got off to a terrible start in 2020, but in a short period of time Rutten has shown that it could end up being a success (more by luck than by execution or method it has to be said).

And there’s no reason to suggest the latest such arrangement at Waverley Park can’t be a success either.

While the Clarkson-Mitchell arrangement does have echoes of the Malthouse-Buckley scenario, with the champion player replacing the legendary premiership coach, there are a few differences.

Firstly, the Magpies were squarely in the middle of their premiership window, having won the flag in Malthouse’s second last year before losing the grand final to Geelong in his final year. So the angst felt by Malthouse was understandable, whether you agree with the way he handled himself or not. Conversely, the Hawks right now are a long way off their next tilt at a flag. On the face of it, the urge for Clarkson to ‘cut and run’ wouldn’t be as strong.

Secondly, Buckley’s apprenticeship was only two years before he was thrust into the big chair, whereas Mitchell spent two years at West Coast, as a player and then in Adam Simpson’s coaching staff, and, by the time he assumes control from Clarkson, would have served another four years in Hawthorn’s footy department, including coaching his own team in his own right at Box Hill in the VFL.

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Thirdly, while you can never say never in the football world, and therefore cannot completely rule out Clarkson opting not to see out the final year of his contract, it would be a stunning about-face if he did leave Waverley Park this year. When the rumours of Collingwood approaching Mitchell started intensifying recently, the four-time premiership coach went on the public record urging Mitchell against rushing into a senior coaching role, warning of the fate that befell other champion players who took the plunge too soon. By leaving Hawthorn a year early, Clarkson would potentially be the sole reason for Mitchell doing just that and becoming an AFL coach sooner than planned.

Fourthly, Clarkson runs his own race. The fact that there is already one AFL coaching vacancy at Collingwood should not prompt him at all to panic and jump at the chance to coach another club next year. Once he completes his incredible 18-year reign at the Hawks next year, he will pick any job he chooses, and senior coaching roles will very likely be made available purely as a result of his services being up for grabs.

For all intents and purposes, Clarkson can just sit back in 2022, enjoy his final year at Hawthorn, continue the development of its young group players and ease the media scrutiny on the club in what will probably be another finals-free season. It would certainly make Mitchell’s transition into the top job much smoother, rather than throwing him into the deep end with a tough first year at the helm.

The other aspect of this fascinating situation is that Collingwood has now missed out on both Mitchell, who recently pulled out of the running to be its next coach (we now know why), and Clarkson, presuming he honours the final year of his contract.

By entering the race for a new coach first in parting ways with Buckley a month ago, the Magpies seemingly put themselves in the box seat to snare at least one of those two Hawthorn legends.

But now it would appear as though other clubs whose coaches are under serious pressure, such as Carlton and Gold Coast, have unwittingly been placed at the front of the queue for Clarkson’s signature.

The irony is that David Teague and Stuart Dew, who are both contracted until the end of 2022, could very well be spared an early termination by the mere fact that Clarkson won’t be gettable until the end of next season. That duo might have essentially been given a 14-month audition to demonstrate why they should be given contract extensions.

And while Teague is probably less likely to hang onto his job long term – mid-season football department reviews hardly ever augur well – he might at least be afforded enough breathing space to change his fortunes.

So in the end, one of the greatest coaching tenures in VFL/AFL history will come to an end at Hawthorn.

Clarkson is the Hawks’ most successful and longest-serving coach, overseeing the 2008, 2013, 2014 and 2015 premierships, and coaching them in 383 games – a figure that will grow to a minimum of 412 by the end of next season.

They are massive shoes to fill, but Mitchell was never short on confidence or self-belief throughout his brilliant playing career which included four flags and a Brownlow Medal, and if anyone is up for the challenge of taking on an almost-impossible follow-up act, the five-time Hawthorn best-and-fairest winner is the man.