Essendon star Maddy Prespakis is having a stellar first season playing for the Bombers. Photo: AFL MEDIA
Talk about a tight finish. With two rounds left, it’s not inaccurate to say that the AFLW’s minor premiership really is anyone’s to claim.
Last round, with Brisbane, Collingwood, and Melbourne all winning their respective matches, all it took was just one loss for reigning premier Adelaide to plunge from second to fourth on the ladder.
As unimaginable as it may seem, the Crows, long a top-four staple and still a top-two aspirant, could finish outside the top four by the end of the home-and-away season, while Geelong, which in the last campaign won just two of 10 matches and finished 12th in a field of 14, could end up on top.
A Crows-Cats blockbuster headlines this weekend’s action, along with a Collingwood-North Melbourne clash. Expansion sides Hawthorn and Essendon will try to play spoiler against flag fancies Brisbane and Melbourne, respectively, while Richmond — the league’s hottest side — goes for its seventh consecutive victory.
ADELAIDE (6-2) v GEELONG (6-2) (Unley Oval, Friday 5.40pm local time)
Memo to the Crows: These Cats aren’t the easybeats they were just months ago. They’re not yet a flag fancy, but they’re a legitimate finals side and they’re coming for you. Adelaide has the experience and list depth, but Geelong, with four straight wins, has the form and momentum. Adelaide also has a serious, potentially season-ending injury to a star player to deal with, as captain Chelsea Randall is expected to miss between three and five weeks with an ankle injury. Geelong’s ball magnets Amy McDonald and Nina Morrison continue to have terrific campaigns, young clearance queen Georgie Prespakis picked up right where she left off after a two-week suspension, and Shelley Scott and Chloe Scheer are forming a solid, one-two scoring punch up forward. But will all that be enough to thwart the efforts of Adelaide superstars Ebony Marinoff, Anne Hatchard, and Ash Woodland with the Crows top-four standing in danger? Back the Cats in, in their moment-of-truth match.
GIL TIPS: GEELONG
GOLD COAST (4-4) v CARLTON (2-4-2) (Metricon Stadium, Friday 7.40pm local time)
In a strange way, the Blues now partly control the Suns’ finals destiny. To qualify for finals, Gold Coast must defeat Carlton to keep its top-eight hopes alive, then defeat GWS next round and hope Carlton beats Western Bulldogs. The Suns’ dreams actually are within reach because both the Blues and Giants have been as maddeningly inconsistent as they themselves continue to be. Expect the Suns to make a mighty push in what is highly likely to be their last home match of the campaign.
GIL TIPS: GOLD COAST
COLLINGWOOD (7-1) v NORTH MELBOURNE (5-3) (Victoria Park, Saturday 1.10pm local time)
The Magpies come into this match playing excellent football, riding a four-match winning streak, while the Roos have won four of their last five. Collingwood star midfielder Jaimee Lambert has thrived while carrying a heavy load through the middle with two injured stars on the shelf, Chloe Molloy has capably filled the breach, Sabrina Frederick last round found her goalkicking boots, and Eliza James has lit up the forward line. The Roos’ Jasmine Garner has been in blistering form, but as a team, North Melbourne has been wildly inaccurate. That may very well be its undoing, playing a genuine flag contender away.
GIL TIPS: COLLINGWOOD
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SYDNEY (0-8) v FREMANTLE (1-6-1) (Henson Park, Saturday 3.10pm local time)
It doesn’t look like it on paper, but a perfect storm is brewing for the Swans to finally break their duck and earn that elusive first-ever win. The Dockers — so injury-riddled that last round they had to go the top-up route to deploy the minimum 21 players — mustered just a paltry three behinds at home in what, for a preliminary finalist of last season, has been an ordeal of a campaign. But Sydney played its best match of the season last week, falling to the Bombers by less than a kick — making the AFL’s admission that umpire error negated Swans’ Molly Eastman’s set shot goal that would have given her side a late lead even more painful. With the energized young Swans playing their last home match of the season, they’ll be more motivated than ever to get on the winners list, while the exhausted, cross-country-traveling Dockers would have every reason to want to get the season over with.
GIL TIPS: SYDNEY
WEST COAST (2-6) v WESTERN BULLDOGS (5-3) (Mineral Resources Park, Saturday 5.10pm local time)
The Bulldogs won last round despite their wastefulness in front of the sticks, but don’t expect that to continue now that they’ll be playing away from windy Ballarat. There’s too much at stake for Dogs’ veteran leaders Ellie Blackburn and Kirsty Lamb to let their young charges backslide against a weaker but improving side. Not only would a Dogs’ win further entrench them in the top eight, but with three clubs just one win ahead on the ladder, if one or more of those sides also loses, it would allow the Dogs to climb higher. While the Eagles form has improved, their home ground hasn’t exactly been a fortress, with a 1-3 win-loss record there.
GIL TIPS: WESTERN BULLDOGS
HAWTHORN (3-5) v BRISBANE (7-1) (Skybus Stadium, Saturday 7.10 pm local time)
The Lions’ win-loss record is a bit deceptive but, for them, in a good way. It’s true that two other clubs have an equal record and three other sides have just one less win, but Brisbane’s percentage (243.8) and points scored (429) are testaments to its dominance. The introduction this season of four expansion sides has allowed some just above-average clubs to fatten up on wins, but the Lions have remained consistent, with a close loss to Richmond their only blip. Hawthorn lost a one-point heartbreaker to Greater Western Sydney last round, which snapped its three-game winning streak, but the Hawks will do well to avoid a pummelling here, with the Lions licking their chops to build their percentage before a last-round showdown with Collingwood.
GIL TIPS: BRISBANE
ST KILDA (2-6) v PORT ADELAIDE (1-6-1) (RSEA Park, Sunday 1.10pm local time)
As with the Sydney-Fremantle match, this one’s all about avoiding the dreaded wooden spoon. The Saints have lost six on the trot after starting the year with two spankings of expansion teams. The Power have managed just one win and played most of the season without boom recruit Gemma Houghton. And surely goalkicking captain Erin Phillips can’t go the entire season without booting a major, can she? The Power are playing on the road but take away St Kilda’s inflated point total from two blowout wins and the Saints would have just about the same offensive output as the Power. The Saints also have conceded slightly more points than Port Adelaide, so this suggests an arm-wrestle. The Power will get over the line, just.
GIL TIPS: PORT ADELAIDE
RICHMOND (6-2) v GWS (3-5) (Mildura Sporting Precinct, Sunday 3.10pm local time)
Only their crosstown rivals, Sydney, have conceded more points than the Giants this season and with the Tigers’ Mon Conti winning clearances and swooping on every loose ball in sight, and Courtney Wakefield emerging into the highly prolific foil for captain Katie Brennan in the forward line, Richmond is blazing to the finish line on the back of six wins on the trot. If the Tigers’ backline was strong enough to neutralize Brisbane a few rounds back, it should have little trouble with the Giants, who are 14th in the AFLW in scoring and have been far too dependent on star forward Cora Staunton to kick goals. If Richmond wins and other results go its way, the Tigers could climb into the top four.
GIL TIPS: RICHMOND
MELBOURNE (7-1) v ESSENDON (3-5) (Casey Fields, Sunday, 5.10 pm local time)
With an expansion opponent on the agenda and given how they blitzed Gold Coast last week, the Demons look extremely likely to keep pace with the ladder-leading Lions on wins and on percentage. In fact, the Dees could possibly supplant Brisbane and capture the minor premiership, with wins over the Bombers this round and West Coast in the next round, and a Brisbane loss next round to Collingwood. While Bomber Maddy Prespakis is having a stellar season playing for the team for whom she grew up barracking, the Dees’ Olivia Purcell has matched her performance over the last few rounds, playing career-best footy. Melbourne’s list is a veritable galaxy of stars, and it returns this weekend to its windswept Casey Field stronghold, where since 2019 it has been nearly impossible to beat.
GIL TIPS: MELBOURNE
