Melbourne captain Daisy Pearce wheels on to her left foot last week in the win over Adelaide. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
Two is the most important number now. There are just two more rounds to go in the AFLW home-and-away season. Six clubs are fighting for the coveted top two ladder spots. For the two winning sides of those coveted ladder berths, with a bye and home preliminary final, the magic number of wins for securing the flag would be — yep, you guessed it — two.
Collingwood, current holder of the No. 3 spot, would immediately put pressure on No. 2 Brisbane and No. 1 Fremantle to win if it does as expected and dispatches St Kilda.
With the Pies on equal 7-1 win-loss footing with the Lions and Dockers, but 36 percentage points from the top spot, they must be smelling blood going into their match against a Saints’ side carrying an anemic percentage of 58.7.
Both the Lions and Dockers have far tougher games — the Lions hosting a surging North Melbourne side, and Fremantle playing a Melbourne team coming off its biggest and best win of the season.
Three doesn’t go into two, so expect to see some tense, spirited matches from the league’s best sides.
GOLD COAST v CARLTON (Friday 5.10 pm, Metricon Stadium)
Few pundits would have figured the Blues to be sitting eighth on the ladder at the business end of the season, but now they need everything to go right for them to make the top six. So who better for them to draw this round than one of the comp’s two winless sides? Fans should see very early on if Carlton’s body language is defiant, or, after failing to protect a 15-point, late fourth quarter lead last weekend, deflated. The margin in three of the Blues’ four losses this season has been a straight kick or less, so they’ve competed well, but have lacked the killer instinct to get across the line. The Blues can’t afford to underestimate the Suns here, or their top six hopes are well and truly over. Carlton’s Darcy Vescio is always exciting to watch, as will be the ruck battle between last week’s co-Rising Star nominee, the Suns’ Lauren Bella, and the Blues’ Breann Moody. For all its ups and downs this season, expect this one to be one of Carlton’s ups.
GIL TIPS: Carlton
GEELONG v GWS (Saturday 1.10 pm, GMHBA Stadium)
As evidenced by their skill errors last week against West Coast and their inexperience, the Cats remain a long way from being a competitive side. Losing one of their stars, Olivia Purcell, only made things worse. GWS, meanwhile, was convincing in stomping the Saints, in the wet. Last week, ageless Cora Staunton kicked a bag for the second time this season, while Alyce Parker and Rebecca Beeson again worked their magnetism around the ball. That dynamic duo sits No. 2 and No. 8, respectively for average disposals per match. Collingwood is the only other club with two teammates in the top 10 in that category. The Giants are unlikely to make the top six — too many things would have to break right for them — but finishing with more wins than losses by coming out on top the final two rounds is a distinct possibility. That motivation will drive GWS to put Geelong to the sword.
GIL TIPS: GWS
COLLINGWOOD v ST KILDA (Saturday 3.10 pm, Victoria Park)
In a star-studded squad, how important is Brianna Davey to the Pies’ fortunes? Consider this: Their only loss of the season — a nail-biter to Brisbane last week — happened when tagger Cathy Svarc put Davey on lockdown and limited her to a season-low 14 touches. The Pies slid down two ladder spots, from first to third, and they’ll be ravenous to get back to a top-two berth in time for finals. Still, Davey is third in the AFLW for average disposals per match, with 23.3, and her teammate Britt Bonnici is No. 1 with 24.4. The Saints counter with midfielders Georgia Patrikios and Tilly Lucas-Rodd, but when they can’t get the ball into their forward half — and that’s been too often this year — they’ve been woeful. How’s this for futility? Five times in seven matches, St Kilda has kicked three goals or fewer. Put up numbers like that, and a team is likely to get crunched. Back the Pies to quickly and convincingly dismiss the Saints.
GIL TIPS: Collingwood
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BRISBANE v NORTH MELBOURNE (Saturday 4.10 pm, The Gabba)
If this match were a box on a supermarket shelf, it would have a big, bright sash with big letters screaming “Potential Match of the Round!” It will be an exciting night for Lions’ fans, as the women’s side battles the Roos in a curtain-raiser preceding the men’s season opener. That will potentially mean exponentially more fans barracking for them than the Brisbane women have had at Hickey Park. And that should inspire the likes of star forwards Dakota Davidson, Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw and Courtney Hodder to kick some goals. And how about the inspiring return of the Lions’ Jess Wuestchner to action? The Roos have been in red-hot form, and like the Lions, they, too, have won three straight. North has the more potent list, but Brisbane, arguably, has played better as a team. If head-to-head matchups with the Pies are any kind of barometer, the Lions handled them, while North couldn’t match up. On paper, this looks like an absolute cracker — almost too close to call. But take the Lions. They’re at home, and while the Lions have no trouble scoring, opponents have trouble scoring against them.
GIL TIPS: Brisbane
RICHMOND v WEST COAST (Sunday 12:40 pm, Swinburne Centre)
The Eagles’ confidence is flying high after last week, when they kicked the highest score of their short history and righteously whacked Geelong. But their captain Emma Swanson’s whack on the Cats’ Georgie Rankin in the final term has cost her this match and the next. The AFLW Tribunal’s slapping of the West Coast skipper with a forced two-week holiday surely lets a big heap of air out of the proverbial balloon, especially with the Eagles already missing stalwart Dana Hooker for the rest of the season due to injury. West Coast dangerous small forward Imhara Cameron and her teammates, the Kelly sisters Niamh and Grace, all had days out last round, but the Tigers truly look like a team on the rise, building plenty of momentum into next season. Monique Conti, Katie Brennan, Courtney Wakefield and Sabrina Frederick form a strong veteran nucleus, and young Ellie McKenzie is a gun. The Tigers won’t do anything less here than roar with gusto in front of their home fans.
GIL TIPS: Richmond
ADELAIDE v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Sunday 3.10 pm, Norwood Oval)
Pardon the cliché, but here, it applies: When the going gets tough, the Crows get going. Earlier this season, after absorbing a 30-point bruising by Fremantle on its home deck, Adelaide responded the following round with renewed focus and jumped Brisbane from the opening siren and won. Odds are, after a similar beating at the hands of the Demons last week, Adelaide will likely be dirty and determined at home against the Bulldogs. This will be the second week on the road for the Bulldogs, after falling last round in Hobart to North Melbourne, and outside the loss to Freo, the Crows have played well this year at home. Adelaide has too many skilled ball-winners and too much edge to fall twice in a row to another team beneath it on the ladder. Adelaide has scored more points than anyone else in the competition, and despite the Dogs’ talent, this one might be a Crows’ blowout.
GIL TIPS: Adelaide
FREMANTLE v MELBOURNE (Sunday 6:10 pm, Fremantle Oval)
Top rung Fremantle is euphoric after its epic comeback last week against Carlton, while Melbourne is also walking taller after out-muscling the two-time premiership-winning Crows. So who gets the chocolates here? The Dockers. They’re not at the top of the ladder by accident, and last week, with their backs to the wall and needing three goals with five minutes left to play, they got the job done. Not too many other sides in the comp could pull that off — but having weapons like Kiara Bowers, Gemma Houghton, and Sabreena Duffy and a strong supporting cast helps. The Dees will likely put up a very fierce battle — or should that be, a very “Pearce” battle? Daisy Pearce has helped Melbourne in her move up forward, and Lauren Pearce has starred in the ruck. Karen Paxman is a terrific ball-winner and Kate Hore is always capable of kicking a bag. But Freo has an additional edge in allowing the fewest points in the competition, and its stinginess in conceding big scores will get it over the line.
GIL TIPS: Fremantle
