Demon warrior Karen Paxman is an integral part of Melbourne’s steel-strong spine. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
Seven is the AFLW’s magic number, as, by next Wednesday night — touch wood — 13 of its 14 clubs will have played seven matches.
To achieve that, not only must players be free from infection by or exposure to the COVID-19 virus, but one club, reigning premier Brisbane, must play two matches this round, with a three-day break in between.
St Kilda and Greater Western Sydney, meanwhile, must play a Wednesday night match. How will these three clubs’ fitness hold up? It’s a question that would intrigue even Charles Darwin if he were alive today.
With only one club outside the top six, Gold Coast, seriously threatening to break in, the gap between the league’s strongest and weakest sides has emerged as enormous, which some footy pundits say is a red flag for next year, when four new clubs are slated to begin.
But for now, ladder-leading Fremantle will enjoy a week off before a highly-anticipated home battle against Adelaide, which holds second spot — unless Melbourne or North Melbourne supplant the Crows.
Last round produced the season’s biggest upset so far, so with that as a possibility and a fixture that’s always subject to change, as with all AFLW rounds in 2022, expect the unpredictable.
GOLD COAST (3-2) v BRISBANE (4-1) (Thursday 7.40 pm, Metricon Stadium)
This year’s annual AFLW QClash between Queensland rivals will arguably be its most meaningful. That’s because the Suns now have the entire competition’s attention — and respect — as a genuine finals chance. Last week, Gold Coast kicked its highest score in its brief history in a victory over Geelong and no other opponent than the reigning premier Lions could pose a better test for the Suns to measure how much they’ve improved and where they truly sit, on the league ladder. For Brisbane — which last round kicked a deplorable 3.13 — the contest is the first of a gruelling 10-day span in which it will play three matches — including one against flag contender, Melbourne, and another involving a cross-country flight to face the Eagles. As if the Lions’ coaching panel isn’t challenged enough to carefully manage players during this time, star forward Dakota Davidson will miss the next two matches because of concussion. But first-year sensation Zimmie Farquharson, who missed last week’s match because of illness, returns. Gold Coast, meanwhile, gets an offensive boost, welcoming Kalinda Howarth back to the fold. If ever any team would be motivated to claim a scalp now, it’s the Suns. If they dominate stoppages the way they did last week against Geelong, thanks to All-Australian ruck contender Lauren Bella, and if the Lions’ radar in front of the sticks is as wonky as it was against St Kilda, an upset may be on the cards.
GIL TIPS: Gold Coast
WESTERN BULLDOGS (2-3) v GEELONG (1-5) (Friday 7.10 pm, Victoria University Whitten Oval)
Not even Nostradamus could have foreseen the banged-up Bulldogs — who, true to form lost two players to injury during the match — getting the chocolates at Norwood last week against Adelaide. But indeed, the Dogs did, playing seriously inspired four-quarter footy, including an all-hands-on-deck, dying seconds effort to deny their foes of a point that would have drawn, or six that would have won the thrilling match. Kirsty Lamb, Ellie Blackburn, Bonnie Toogood, and Celine Moody were just some of the Doggies’ heroes in a total team effort. Geelong is better than its 1-5 win-loss record indicates and against Gold Coast last round, found a way to kick a respectable score. The Cats’ Amy McDonald continues having an excellent year and first-year jet Georgie Prespakis improves with every passing moment. With the Dogs at home, though, their home fans cheering them on, and riding last weekend’s momentum, it would be hard to see them not winning against a developing side.
GIL TIPS: Western Bulldogs
GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY (2-3) v ADELAIDE (5-1) (Saturday 3.10 pm, Henson Park)
The ever-confident Crows will insist they didn’t underestimate the Western Bulldogs last week, but they certainly couldn’t have expected to get jumped straight out of the gate as they did. Perhaps Adelaide also expected the Doggies to capitulate in the face of their grandstand finish, but they didn’t. It will be tempting for the Crows to look past the Giants, who last round didn’t even score until just under three minutes remaining in their match, and see their looming showdown in Fremantle, against the top-spot Dockers. But the Crows are too talented and experienced an outfit to do that and have shown a nasty disposition the immediate round after they lose which causes them to smash opponents. Ebony Marinoff and Anne Hatchard have been at their ball-winning best, Ash Woodland is enjoying her reign as the league’s leading goalkicker, and Erin Phillips can put her teammates on her back and lead the charge. The Giants’ Alyce Parker, Alicia Eva, and Chloe Dalton have all done their bit of ball-winning, but haven’t yet matched the midfields of the strongest sides, and despite recent magnet-moving, GWS doesn’t appear closer to sorting its forward line. This game could quickly become a Crows’ glorified training run.
GIL TIPS: Adelaide
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CARLTON (1-5) v ST KILDA (0-5) (Saturday 5.10 pm, Ikon Park)
Nothing quite screams “underwhelming” like a match between two clubs at the bottom of the leader with no realistic hopes of playing finals. Perhaps pride will be a factor here, with both sides trying to avoid the embarrassing “wooden spooners” label. Carlton has the more talented list, but continues to underachieve, has conceded more points than any other, and its 45.5 percentage is the competition’s lowest. St Kilda, despite being the only AFLW club not to have won a match this season, has been competitive in some of its outings, most notably last round in which it put a scare into the Lions. The round before, the Saints lost a heartbreaker to West Coast. St Kilda has a marginally better percentage (48.4) than Carlton, but can’t match the Blues’ list and won’t be playing in front of its home fans.
GIL TIPS: Carlton
WEST COAST (1-5) v RICHMOND (1-5) (Saturday 7.10 pm, Trevor Barker Beach Oval)
The Eagles’ collective inexperience revealed itself last round against league stalwarts Collingwood, which punished their undisciplined acts and capitalized on their turnovers. On at least a couple of occasions, the Eagles self-sabotaged with golden scoring opportunities with poor decision making and ball use. The Tigers are coping with significant injuries to key players and have dropped their last five matches after winning their opener. This weekend, though, they should find the cure to their woes. West Coast has had a recent habit of quiet first halves, which doesn’t bode well for a club that rarely puts up big scores and has the third-worst 55.8 percentage. Richmond, meanwhile, has scored more points (211) than any other team outside the top six. Mon Conti continues to be a force through the middle of the ground, Katie Brennan is always a chance to kick a bag, and young gun Ellie McKenzie continues to rebuild her strength with each match. Richmond should get back on the winner’s list.
GIL TIPS: Richmond
NORTH MELBOURNE (5-1) v COLLINGWOOD (4-2) (Sunday 3.10 pm, North Hobart Oval)
These two sides haven’t faced off since last year’s tense qualifying final thriller at Victoria Park, which saw the Roos in command for much of the match, but then fall short by one straight kick. This weekend, the Pies travel to Hobart, and the Roos’ home soil, and they’ll encounter a bolder side, growing in confidence and belief. All of Collingwood’s wins have been against teams outside the top six, while it decisively lost two matches to top sides, Brisbane and Fremantle. While the Pies boast midfielders such as Britt Bonnici, Steph Chiocci, and Jaimee Lambert, the Roos stack up just as well, if not better, with Ash Riddell, the competition’s leading average possession getter, Jasmine Garner, and Jenna Bruton. North’s fleet of small forwards, including its leading goalkicker Daria Bannister (five), plus its tall marking target, Tahlia Randall (three), are far more productive than Collingwood’s attack, despite the Pies’ Chloe Molloy looking more like her goalkicking self last week, booting two. The Roos have both an arsenal of weapons and a home ground advantage. They have a seven-game winning streak on the Apple Isle and in this match, should comfortably make it eight.
GIL TIPS: North Melbourne
BRISBANE (5-1) v MELBOURNE (5-1) (Monday, 7.10 pm, Metricon Stadium)
Earlier this round, the Lions destroyed their archrivals, the Suns, while last week, Melbourne feasted on a Giants side that barely put up a fight. The Dees would be wise, though, to brace themselves against a perpetually hungry Lions’ outfit. The Dees have a steel-strong spine, from Karen Paxman in the middle and Alyssa Bannan on the wing, to Eliza McNamara in defence and star recruit and the league’s second-leading goalkicker, Tayla Harris up forward. Brisbane boasts ball-hawks Emily Bates and Orla O’Dwyer. Its potent forward line, however, will be missing the injured Davidson. While both sides are deep and star-studded, a more well-rested Melbourne might have the slightest of advantages.
GIL TIPS: Melbourne
