Jenna Bruton has been one of North Melbourne’s best this year and will loom large in the match of the round against Fremantle. Photo: AFL MEDIA
It’s all become a numbers game. By the end of this weekend, with five rounds completed, all 14 AFLW clubs should have been exactly at their season’s halfway mark.
But COVID-19 hasn’t played along. And it’s not likely to start anytime soon, with various players and team officials either contracting or being exposed to the virus, requiring teams to adhere to health and safety protocols and enter isolation.
Greater Western Sydney, this weekend, is the latest squad in a long line to have a match postponed.
West Coast, because of a previous postponement, will play two matches this round. The ladder no longer is linear. Fremantle, at the top, is scheduled to play its sixth match, to align with a possible Western Australia border opening, but four of the five clubs in the top six chasing the Dockers are slated to play their fifth, while reigning premier, Brisbane, has been fixtured to play just its fourth.
Still, this is the time of the season when teams’ depth determines whether their flag chances fortify or fade.
Fremantle and Adelaide, number two on the ladder, face the sternest immediate tests.
The AFLW this week banned the Dockers’ Kiara Bowers, the league’s 2021 co-best-and-fairest, for two matches for an undisciplined act — a crunching, off-the-ball hip-and-shoulder on Bulldog Kirsty Lamb.
Meanwhile, Adelaide, which sits second and boasts the league’s highest percentage, will be without star captain Chelsea Randall, as she recovers from a right hamstring injury.
With other top-six sides having depth concerns, caring for their own walking wounded, or shelved stars, by Sunday night, the top of the ladder could look like a logjam.
GEELONG (0-4) v WEST COAST (0-3) (Friday, 7.10 pm, GMHBA Stadium)
If you’re tired of reading how many times the Cats this year have “honourably”, “bravely”, “gallantly”, or “valiantly” lost, imagine how buggered their players must feel. Geelong has hung in well for the first halves of matches this season, holding the opposition close, but — as was the case last year — the Cats just can’t score often enough. The Cats’ 84-point output easily is the lowest among eight teams which to this point have played four games. In fact, two other teams which have played one fewer game than the Cats, have comfortably outscored them. West Coast, meanwhile, has had a horror start. Think about this damning statistic: the Eagles have averaged just 19 points per match — nearly the total Gold Coast scored against them in the final term of its Round 2 comeback victory. Both sides have young talent worth watching — particularly Georgie Prespakis for Geelong and Mikayla Bowen for West Coast — but all signs point to a low-scoring, dour encounter. Geelong will do enough to get by on its home deck to win.
GIL TIPS: Geelong
BRISBANE (2-1) v COLLINGWOOD (3-1) (Saturday, 5.10 pm, Maroochydore)
Excitement has recently been the order of the day whenever these two sides collide. Last year, the Lions punched their ticket to the grand final by edging the Pies at the Gabba by four points in a seesawing thriller which, but for an unkind bounce, might’ve gone the Pies’ way. Brisbane also got the best of Collingwood in Round 7 last year, hopping fresh off a flight from Queensland and despite kicking a shocking 4.11, won by three points. Emily Bates is at her ball-winning best form for the Lions and Dakota Davidson recovered from an early-season foot injury to kick a goal in last week’s nail-biting win over Geelong. Collingwood will go in fresher, on longer rest than was scheduled, because of a postponement of a match against recently COVID-addled West Coast. But the Pies were humiliated on their home deck the last time they played, by the Dockers who restricted Collingwood’s women to their lowest-ever score. Jaimee Lambert and Britt Bonnici both have averaged 21 disposals per match and have filled in quite nicely for 2021 co-best-and-fairest Bri Davey, who’s out for the season with a knee injury, and Sarah Rowe has been a welcome contributor, averaging 19 touches. But where the Lions have considerable firepower up forward, with Davidson, Jess Wardlaw, Greta Bodey, Courtney Hodder and Jess Wuestchner, the Pies have been firing blanks. Aishling Sheridan has booted four majors, but big-name recruit Sabrina Frederick has kicked a shocking 0.5, while the underperforming Chloe Molloy (2.5) hasn’t fared much better. The Lions, playing at home, should win comfortably.
GIL TIPS: Brisbane
MELBOURNE (3-1) v GOLD COAST (2-1) (Saturday, 7.10 pm, Casey Fields)
Neither of these sides looked like themselves last week — a great result for the Suns, but a big disappointment for the Dees. Melbourne have had purple patches of dominance this season, albeit against bottom-eight sides St Kilda, Richmond and the Western Bulldogs, before then-ladder leaders Adelaide thrashed them last week. Gold Coast had never before won two in a row, but it was resilient last week in pipping Richmond. Indeed, new senior coach Cameron Joyce has his Suns looking like the professional, focused outfit that last year they didn’t appear to be. The ruck battle in this match, featuring Melbourne’s Lauren Pearce and Gold Coast’s Lauren Bella, will be exciting and go a long way toward which midfield will do the most damage. At the coalface, the Dees have a clear advantage with Karen Paxman and Tyla Hanks, with Eliza McNamara running around on the wing. The Suns’ Charlie Rowbottom has impressed in her debut season, but recently losing tall defender Jade Pregelj to a torn ACL, likely to sideline her for a calendar year, makes life easier for Dees power forward Tayla Harris. Plus, Melbourne is at home at Casey Fields, where it’s won nine straight and should comfortably make it 10.
GIL TIPS: Melbourne
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WESTERN BULLDOGS (0-3) v RICHMOND (1-3) (Sunday, 1.10 pm, Whitten Oval)
The Tiges started the season with an impressive blowout of St Kilda in Round 1, and looked for all the world like they would be the AFLW’s most improved club, but haven’t won a match since. Gold Coast may yet eclipse Richmond as the league’s highest risers on the ladder, as evidenced last week by their win over the Tiges. The injury-riddled Doggies have yet to win, despite a spirited effort last round against Fremantle, which saw them fall by a kick. Time, and the draw, haven’t been the Doggies’ allies, with players alternately going 20 days between matches due to their, and other clubs’, COVID-forced isolations, then pivoting to play two matches in five days. The Doggies came away bloodied and bruised from their intensely physical match against Fremantle and now face a Tigers team hungry to get back on the winners’ list. While Ellie Blackburn has admirably captained her Doggies, setting a great example of skill and composure, they are sorely missing goalkicking threat Izzy Huntington, leaving Bonnie Toogood to shoulder too much of the load. What’s more, the Doggies aren’t winning enough of the ball. Not one Western Bulldogs player is in the AFLW’s top-30 average possession getters. Richmond boasts two: superstar Mon Conti and Gabrielle Seymour. Captain Katie Brennan’s goalkicking radar has been sharp all season and she can tear apart a match at any given time. That might happen this round.
GIL TIPS: Richmond
CARLTON (1-3) v ADELAIDE (4-0) (Sunday, 3.10 pm, Ikon Park)
It’s hard to imagine another AFLW side that has frustrated and confounded its supporters as much as the Blues have this season. All too often, even with its talented list, including stars like Darcy Vescio, Maddie Prespakis, and Kerryn Harrington, Carlton just can’t seem to get out of its own way. Take your pick of maladies: undisciplined acts, skill errors, lapses, fatigue, inaccuracy kicking for goal – they’ve all affected the Blues. This round only gets tougher for Carlton, when it will be in a fight all afternoon against juggernaut Adelaide. The Crows will miss their injured captain Chelsea Randall, but they handily won over Melbourne last weekend playing without star Stevie-Lee Thompson. Erin Phillips once again showed last week why she’s a legend of the game, kicking three goals and winning plenty of ball. Even if she doesn’t fire, Adelaide’s list is star-studded, from midfield ball magnets Anne Hatchard and Ebony Marinoff, to neutralising tall defender Sarah Allan, to workhorse small forward Rachelle Martin and early favourite for recruit of the year, Ash Woodland, who already has kicked 10 goals. If Carlton isn’t careful, this match has the potential to get ugly early, and over, fast.
GIL TIPS: Adelaide
NORTH MELBOURNE (3-1) v FREMANTLE (5-0) Sunday, 5.10 pm, North Hobart Oval)
Historically, the Apple Isle hasn’t been too kind to the visiting Dockers, whose men have a 2-11 win-loss record there. Bowers’ suspension isn’t doing them any favours, either. In last year’s final home-and-away round, with a finals berth on the line, North bested Fremantle by one point at Arden Street, with observers debating how much a late-match, questionable umpiring decision may have aided the Roos. If the Dockers have proven anything so far this season, it is that their list is far deeper than the pundits have thought. Midfielder Dana East, affectionately nicknamed “Turbo 2.0” for her similar skills to Bowers, was rested last round, but will figure prominently here. Defender Sarah Verrier this week earned a Rising Star nomination for her performance against the Western Bulldogs, and both she and Aine Tighe have greatly impressed filling in for All-Australian defender Janelle Cuthbertson, who the club projects will miss the next six weeks with a broken jaw she suffered at training — after missing the previous two weeks with concussion. Winger Ebony Antonio, meanwhile, arguably has been the Dockers’ most valuable player, winning at least two matches off her own boot. As for the Roos, what more superlatives can be lavished on Ash Riddell, the AFLW’s early favourite for best-and-fairest, with a league-best average of 29 disposals per match? Jenna Bruton, Jasmine Garner, and Mia King all feature in the league’s top-30 ball winners, Emma King always is impactful whether in the ruck or up forward, and Emma Kearney is relishing her new role as a rebounding defender. Tasmanian small forwards Daria Bannister and Daisy Bateman are perennially dangerous. This has match-of-the-round potential and in the end, the Dockers’ depth will get them over the line.
GIL TIPS: Fremantle
ST KILDA (0-3) v WEST COAST (Tuesday, 5.10 pm, Trevor Barker Oval)
By the time this match is scheduled to take place, the Saints won’t have played in about two weeks, after Melbourne ran them off the park in a final-term onslaught, while the Eagles will be playing their second in five days. The Saints have conceded the second-most points in the comp, while the anaemic Eagles attack has managed to score the league’s lowest tally. Tilly Lucas-Rodd has been the Saints’ best player, while West Coast has been buoyed by captain Emma Swanson’s return. Going strictly by the points scored and points conceded numbers, plus St Kilda’s home ground advantage, it points to a Saints win, but likely not by much.
GIL TIPS: St Kilda
