Georgia Campbell is congratulated by Alyssa Bannan (left) and Casey Sherriff during Melbourne’s win over North in Round 8. Photo: AFL MEDIA
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
ADELAIDE (9-1) v BRISBANE (7-3) (Norwood Oval, Saturday 2:35pm local time)
History, experience and depth are all on the side of the Crows, who are seeking their fourth flag. But the Lions have had their number in the last three matches, including a three-point win only a few weeks ago, which served as Adelaide’s only loss for the year, and a preliminary final last season. Adelaide will likely tag Brisbane’s leading ball-winner Ally Anderson but, statistically speaking, the Sophie Conway has done more damage for Brisbane in its recent victories over the Crows than any other player, averaging 19 disposals and kicking two goals. The Lions’ victory over Adelaide in Round 8 could’ve been far more damaging if not for their inaccurate 5.12 scoreline. Adelaide is usually too good a side to let its opponents’ inaccuracy and turnovers go unpunished, and boasts dynamos Ebony Marinoff, Anne Hatchard and Niamh Kelly through the middle. Crows trio Kelly, Caitlin Gould and Danielle Ponter match it in firepower with the Lions’ forwards Dakota Davidson and Courtney Hodder as well. Brisbane will have a significant out in star defender Dee Heslop, who copped a three-week ban for her tackle last weekend on Rhi Watt, that left the Demon concussed. Adelaide will be eager to avenge its only loss of 2023, and at near full strength at home, will break the Brisbane hoodoo.
LAST MEETING: Brisbane won by 3 points
GIL’S TIP: ADELAIDE
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
GOLD COAST (6-3-1) v Sydney (6-4) (Heritage Bank Stadium, Saturday 6:15pm local time)
The Swans are this season’s feelgood story, metamorphosing from last season’s winless wooden spooners into finalists 12 months later, while the Suns have produced their best-ever season. But as successful as both sides have been this year, each enters this match with a significant out. Gold Coast has lost gun midfielder Charlie Rowbottom to season-ending ankle surgery, while Sydney must soldier on without young star ruck Ally Morphett. Both teans are riding high on momentum, as the Swans have won four of their last five matches, including last weekend’s must-win game over Fremantle, while the Suns notched wins in their last two games after drawing with Port Adelaide. Despite Sydney’s bravery this season against the odds, Gold Coast has a significant edge here, with home ground advantage, overall experience as a unit and weapons across the ground. The Suns have at their disposal run-with player Lucy Single’s tagging abilities, speed merchant Niamh McLaughlin’s dash off half-back, as well as dangerous forwards Jamie Stanton, Jac Dupuy and Tara Bohanna. But don’t count out Sydney, which features midfielder Laura Gardiner, who has the third-most disposals in the comp (297), and leading goalkickers Chloe Molloy and Bec Privitelli. Signs point to this cutthroat affair as being a nail-biting thriller with Gold Coast getting the job done.
LAST MEETING: Gold Coast won by 34 points
GIL’S TIP: GOLD COAST
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SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
GEELONG (6-4) v ESSENDON (6-4) (GMHBA Stadium, Sunday 1:05pm local time)
As if this match-up isn’t exciting enough, with two clubs with identical records battling it out in a do-or-die tussle, what about the sibling rivalry on show between star sisters Georgie and Madison Prespakis who will line-up for Geelong and Essendon respectively? Last weekend, Madison was kept well in check by Single during the Bombers’ loss to Gold Coast, so whichever Cat gets the job on her will be poring over the vision from that match. With both sisters likely to be closely minded by their respective opponents, it may create additional freedom for Geelong’s Nina Morrison and Essendon’s Georgia Nanscawen to win their share of the ball. The Bombers defeated the Cats at Warrnambool in Round 6, after Geelong squandered an early 14-point lead and were held goalless after quarter-time. Amber Clarke kicked two majors for the Bombers, while Madison Prespakis and Nanscawen combined for 58 touches and 11 clearances. While Georgie Prespakis amassed 26 touches, she missed two shots on goal, and Morrison had a quiet day. Expect the Cats to have their goalkicking radars aligned and fully rebound on their home deck.
LAST MEETING: Essendon won by 10 points
GIL’S TIP: GEELONG
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
MELBOURNE (8-2) v NORTH MELBOURNE (7-3) (Ikon Park, Sunday 3:05pm local time)
The reigning premier Demons have dominated recent match-ups with the Kangaroos, sweeping to victory in three contests, including a convincing win in a preliminary final last season. But North could be due for a change in luck. Melbourne won’t be playing at its Casey Fields fortress, where the swirling winds are its ally, it has lost defender Casey Sherriff for the rest of the season with a fractured arm, and recently injured midfielder Paxy Paxman (hamstring) isn’t a certainty to be fully fit. Despite all of that, the Demons are clear favourites, even with North featuring arguably the comp’s best two midfielders in AFLCA Player of the Year Jasmine Garner and Ash Riddell. A major reason for that is the Kangaroos lost all three matches this season against fellow top-four sides Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide. In fact, North’s overall record against “the big three” is an appalling 2-14. The Kangaroos have the best defence in 2023, but if the Demons, who have the best attack, get their fast-moving run-and-gun style going, things could get ugly very quickly for the Kangaroos. Alyssa Bannan and Eliza West will be hard to stop from distributing the ball to Eden Zanker and Kate Hore, who shared this year’s goalkicking title with 20 majors each. North Melbourne have only managed a total of eight goals in their last three losses to the Demons. If that’s any indicator of what’s to come this weekend, the Demons will breeze to victory.
LAST MEETING: Melbourne won by 23 points
GIL’S TIP: MELBOURNE
