A dejected Port Adelaide leaves the Gabba after the Power’s qualifying final loss to Brisbane. Photo: AFL MEDIA
Port Adelaide’s qualifying final defeat at the hands of Brisbane on Saturday night was by the finish pretty comprehensive. So it was no surprise coach Ken Hinkley was working overtime at the post-game press conference to keep the Power’s morale high.
“We’ll be OK, we’ll be fine,” he said. “We played GWS at Adelaide Oval not that long ago and had a nice strong win.”
Hinkley also saw some portents of positivity when he was asked about his team having to now do it the hard way, unlike 2020 and 2021 when the Power won straight through to preliminary finals with qualifying final victories.
“In ’20 and ’21 it didn’t work, so maybe this is the right way for us. Maybe this is the way for us to go. We’ve got no choice, we’re going that way, and we’re going to give it a mighty crack, and we expect to play really next week and win.”
Fair enough, too, despite the dubious reasoning that because Plan A didn’t work two and three years ago, Plan B will. Port Adelaide did finish top four for a reason, four ladder positions and four wins ahead of Saturday night’s opponent. And, as Hinkley pointed out, a boisterous home crowd at a venue where they’ve won 10 of 13 games this season doesn’t hurt, either.
But neither can you discount the fact that right now, Port Adelaide looks perhaps even more vulnerable than most qualifying final losers. For a number of reasons, only one of which is the quality of their opponent and the irresistible momentum the Giants have built with 10 victories from their past dozen starts.
It used to be something of a final eight ritual that the pundits and public would jump right off qualifying final losers and jump on the bandwagon of elimination final winners, before the former inevitably regained their poise, flexed their muscles, and made the forecasts of gloom look silly.
Indeed, in the first 14 years of the current final eight system, no fewer than 26 of 28 qualifying final losers rebounded to win their semi-finals the following week.
But there’s been a profound change. Since 2014, only 10 of 18 qualifying final losers have recovered to win their semis, with eight teams, Melbourne most recently last year, going out in straight sets.
Is the bottom half of the final eight becoming stronger? Is the top half less invincible now? Maybe a bit of both? But even without considering that trend, the analysts and number crunchers would have you believe Port Adelaide’s profile doesn’t scream “premiership”.
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Particularly not when it comes to defence, a cornerstone of any flag-winning team. And even more so now the Power look likely to be without all three of defensive options Trent McKenzie and Dylan Williams, who were injured against the Lions, and veteran skipper Tom Jonas, who strained a calf at training last week.
Port took a defensive hammering against the Lions, Brisbane’s 19.9 (123) the second-highest score the Power has conceded all season. Port conceded 13 goals from stoppage (the league average is 33 points).
Port Adelaide, while it has no problems scoring, ranked second in 2023, and is arguably the best “territory” team in the competition, also ranks just 12th for fewest points conceded. Bear in mind that none of the past 20 AFL premiership teams has finished any lower than fifth.
Neither do the Power defend opposition attacks particularly well, ranked a lowly 13th for scores per opposition inside 50.
The other worrying statistic remains their ranking of only 11th for fewest points conceded from turnover, with every one of the past 10 premiership teams ranked top six in that category. Not only that, scoring from turnover is one of the Giants’ biggest strengths, Adam Kingsley’s side ranked third.
Port’s convincing 51-point win over the Giants just a month ago should rightly serve as the confidence-booster Hinkley clearly wants it to be.
But Hinkley will also be well aware that was one of just two “off days” GWS has had the entirety of this 2023 season, that result one of just two games the Giants lost by any more than 21 points.
In Round 22, Port set up its big win with a blistering opening term of 7.3 which immediately had GWS on the back foot.
But like has occurred all season, that was a setback from which the Giants learned, and quickly, themselves turning on a seven-goal opening quarter the following week, then three against Carlton, then five to just two in the first term of Saturday’s elimination final win against the Saints.
If the Giants are still in Saturday night’s game come quarter or half-time, there’s every chance they’re going to still be in it up to their necks come the final term.
Port Adelaide starts this week a marginally shorter-priced favourite against GWS than Melbourne will be against Carlton in the game the night before.
But that will be of little comfort to Hinkley and the Power. In four of the past five finals series now, one of the two defeated qualifying finalists has been eliminated with another loss in a semi-final. And not for the first time, the Port coach will be wearing some serious flak from the fans if in 2023 it’s his team exiting stage left.
This article first appeared at ESPN.
