Hayden McLean is congratulated by Tom Papley during the Swans’ win over Gold Coast on Saturday at the SCG. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

The 2023 home-and-away season is proving to be one of the tightest in VFL/AFL history with 12 teams still in the finals hunt after 21 completed rounds.

With two weeks remaining, we take a look at each live chance and analyse their top-eight, top-four and top-two prospects.

1. COLLINGWOOD (17-4, 126.7 per cent, 68 points)
Run home: BL (MS), Ess (MCG)
The Magpies overcame their two-week hiccup with a timely return to form on Friday night by way of an eight-point win over Geelong. The result all but assures them an all-important top-two spot, and one more win will not only guarantee it, but also their 20th VFL/AFL minor premiership. To fall out of the top two, they would need to lose their last two games by significant margins, Brisbane would have to win its last two games, and Port Adelaide would have to win its last two games handsomely.

2. BRISBANE (15-6, 123.2, 60)
Run home: Coll (MS), StK (G)
After clinching the double chance against Adelaide on the weekend, the Lions now have the whip hand in the race for second position, and a coveted pair of home finals. But to make it a guarantee, and possibly even finish on top of the ladder, they will have to win their last two games. It makes their blockbuster showdown with Collingwood this week even more consequential. If Brisbane only wins one of its last two games, it can still finish in the top two, but would need the Power and Demons to also lose one more game each. If the Lions drop their last two games, it would be almost impossible for them to finish in the top two because in that situation they would require Port to lose to both Fremantle and Richmond, and, more than likely, Melbourne to suffer defeats against both Hawthorn and Sydney.

3. PORT ADELAIDE (15-6, 111.0, 60)
Run home: Fre (OS), Rich (AO)
The Power ended their alarming four-game losing streak in style on Sunday with a crushing 51-point win over GWS. The result saw them lock away a top-four spot and kept them in the hunt for second position, as well as two finals at Adelaide Oval. To give themselves the best chance of achieving that, they will have to win their final two games against Freo and the Tigers and hope Brisbane lose to Collingwood and/or St Kilda. If Port only manages to win one more game, to finish second they would then need the Lions to lose both of their final two games and Melbourne to be beaten by the Hawks and/or Swans. If the Power lose to Fremantle and Richmond, they will be on the road for their qualifying final. They remain a silly chance for the minor premiership, but to achieve that, they would need to smash the Dockers and Tigers, Brisbane to win a maximum of one more game (and it would have to be against Collingwood), and the Magpies to cop a pair of frightful thumpings from the Lions and Bombers.

4. MELBOURNE (14-7, 124.0, 56)
Run home: Haw (MCG), Syd (SCG)
The Demons gave up the box seat in the race for second spot in agonising fashion as they suffered a thrilling four-point loss to Carlton on Saturday night. The result ruled them out of the minor premiership, but they are still alive in the pursuit of a top-two finish. However, in order to get there, they have to beat both the Hawks and Swans, and then would need Brisbane to lose to the Magpies and/or Saints, and the Power to lose to the Dockers and/or Tigers. Simon Goodwin’s men could also finish third, but would that be an ideal scenario for them? If they end up fourth, they would almost certainly face Collingwood in an MCG qualifying final first up. Considering the Demons have already beaten the Magpies this year, that seems like a much more desirable outcome than travelling to Brisbane or Adelaide. However, they still need to secure a double chance by beating the Hawks or Swans. If they drop both games and Carlton wins its last two matches against the Suns and Giants, the Demons will finish outside the top four.

5. CARLTON (12-8-1, 116.8, 50)
Run home: GC (Car), GWS (MS)
That’s right. The Blues are a mathematical chance for the top four. While very unlikely, it’s not fanciful. However, so tight is this year’s finals race, that despite being the form team of the competition with eight consecutive wins, Carlton is still not guaranteed a finals spot. It would take an absolute calamity for the Blues to drop out of the top eight now, but if they lose their last two games, St Kilda beats Geelong and/or Brisbane, Sydney beats Adelaide and/or Melbourne, the Bulldogs beat both West Coast and Geelong and either the Bombers or Giants win their last two games, they will miss out on September action. For all of that to happen, Carlton would be one of the unluckiest sides in VFL/AFL history. One more win will almost certainly seal a home elimination final for the Blues. Two more would guarantee it.

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6. ST KILDA (12-9, 107.0, 48)
Run home: Geel (MS), BL (G)
The Saints are also a long shot for the top four. To grab a double chance, they would have to thump both the Cats and Lions, then require Carlton to lose to Gold Coast and/or GWS, and Melbourne to get obliterated by both the Hawks and Swans. Highly unlikely. St Kilda’s primary, and realistic, aim is to finish in the top eight, and to make a certainty of that, it will have to win its last two games against Geelong and Brisbane. The Saints would still probably make the top eight with one more win, but in that situation they would be slightly vulnerable, because they could only afford a maximum of two teams out of the Swans, Bulldogs, Bombers and Giants to overtake them. If they lose their last two games, then the Cats and Crows will also come into play, placing them on even shakier ground.

7. SYDNEY (11-9-1, 112.1, 46)
Run home: Adel (AO), Melb (SCG)
Like the Blues, the Swans are hitting form at the perfect time, having won their last five games. In fact, they have only suffered one loss in their last eight matches. And they now find themselves in reach of a home elimination final. They’ll give themselves the best chance of securing that by beating the Crows and Demons in the final two games, which isn’t an easy task by any means. But if they manage to do it, then they would need either the Saints or Blues to lose one more game. If the Swans only win one more game, to grab a home final they would then need the Saints and/or Blues to lose both of their last two matches. But one more win wouldn’t necessarily secure the Swans a finals place because the Bulldogs, Bombers and Giants remain half a game behind them, and the Cats are two points further back in 11th. If Sydney failed to win another game, the Crows would enter the frame and the Swans could only afford one of those five teams to overtake them.

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-10, 108.5, 44)
Run home: WC (MS), Geel (KP)
The Bulldogs should be sitting pretty in sixth spot right now, but after blowing another golden chance for victory against Hawthorn, they find themselves waist-deep in the mid-table scrap. Two more wins against the Eagles and Cats would secure them a finals berth, and in that scenario they would be a chance to also earn a home final. If they lose one of those games, they could still snare a home final if the Saints and Swans capitulate, but so crazy is this competition that only one more win could also put the Dogs at risk of missing the finals. If Luke Beveridge’s men only manage four more points, and the Saints and Swans stay ahead of them, then they would need the Bombers, Giants, Cats and Crows all to win no more than one more match each. If the Bulldogs lose both of their last two games, they will miss the finals because GWS and Essendon still play each other.

9. ESSENDON (11-10, 99.1, 44)
Run home: GWS (GS), Coll (MCG)
To say the Bombers have been in scratchy form recently would be an understatement, but they are still alive, and somehow find themselves in ninth spot, just percentage outside the top eight. Their best chance of qualifying is winning their last two games against the Giants and Magpies. If they do that, they could finish as high as fifth, but as low as ninth. If they only win one more game, they could still finish as high as sixth, but could also end up 12th. They will not make the finals if they lose their final two games.

10. GWS (11-10, 98.6, 44)
Run home: Ess (GS), Carl (MS)
The Giants are in a very similar boat to the Bombers. If they win their last two games, they could also finish as high as fifth but as low as ninth. If they win one more game, sixth is their ceiling and 12th is their floor. They’ll finish outside the top eight if they fail to win another game.

11. GEELONG (10-10-1, 117.5, 42)
Run home: StK (MS), WB (KP)
Things are starting to get desperate now for our finals hopefuls. Like the Giants and Bombers, the Cats will give themselves the best shot of making the top eight by winning their final two games. But if they only manage one more win, they almost certainly will not make the finals.

12. ADELAIDE (10-11, 115.8, 40)
Run home: Syd (AO), WC (OS)
The Crows need to win both of their final two games and rely on a clutch of other results going their way to sneak into the finals. One more win will not cut it.

Legend: Car – Carrara, G – Gabba, GS – Giants Stadium, KP – Kardinia Park, MS – Marvel Stadium, OS – Optus Stadium