Melbourne star Kysaiah Pickett celebrates a goal against North Melbourne in Hobart on Sunday. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

The 2023 home-and-away season is proving to be one of the tightest in VFL/AFL history with 14 teams still in the finals hunt after 21 completed rounds.

With three weeks remaining, we take a look at each live chance and analyse their top-eight, top-four and top-two prospects.

1. COLLINGWOOD (16-4, 128.0 per cent, 64 points)
Run home: Geel (MCG), BL (MS), Ess (MCG)
Are the wheels starting to fall off? For the first time this year, the Magpies are looking vulnerable. They’ve lost back-to-back games for the first time since Round 9 last year, and have been delivered the hammer blow of one-time Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos being unavailable until as late as preliminary final weekend due to a fractured knee. The loss of key defender Nathan Murphy (ankle) potentially for the remainder of the home-and-away season isn’t ideal either. They now need two wins to guarantee themselves a top-two spot. Incredibly, if they only win one more game, it might not be enough to ensure themselves a home final in the first week.

2. MELBOURNE (14-6, 125.3, 56)
Run home: Carl (MCG), Haw (MCG), Syd (SCG)
For the first time since starting the season 10-0 last year, the Demons have strung together five wins in a row and are now the form team of the top four. Winning their final three games won’t necessarily lock them in for a top two spot, but will go a long way to doing so. And on the flip side, if results go their way, they could finish the season on top of the ladder. One more victory will guarantee them a double chance and with Clayton Oliver and Bayley Fritsch still to return, they’re very well placed to achieve that.

3. BRISBANE (14-6, 124.2, 56)
Run home: Adel (G), Coll (MS), StK (G)
The Lions are in a similar boat to the Demons in that one more win will see them secure a top-four position, while they also remain in the hunt for a coveted pair of home finals after sneaking past Fremantle on Sunday. To do that, they will need to finish in the top two, and their best chance of doing that is winning their final three games. But there are scenarios that could see them grab second spot with two, one or even zero wins from their final three games.

4. PORT ADELAIDE (14-6, 108.5, 56)
Run home: GWS (AO), Fre (OS), Rich (AO)
After winning 13 games in a row, the Power have lost their last four and are dropping down the charts like a stone. They are being smashed by injuries at the wrong time of the year as well, with Charlie Dixon (foot), Aliir Aliir (concussion), Jeremy Finlayson (illness), Miles Bergman (illness), Scott Lycett (knee), Lachie Jones (concussion) and Kane Farrell (illness) all unavailable on the weekend. While they should expect to regain most of those players in the coming weeks, their hopes of a home final in the first week have taken a massive hit. For now, they need to focus all their energy on securing a double chance, and in order to do that, they will need one more win from their final three games. With the Dockers and Tigers still to come, they should do so.

5. CARLTON (11-8-1, 117.2, 46)
Run home: Melb (MCG), GC (Car), GWS (MS)
The Demons might be the form team of the top four, but the Blues are the form team of the competition. Their incredible transformation continued on Sunday and despite being severely undermanned, managed to win their seventh game in a row for the first time since 2000. Unlike the Power, they are rocketing up the standings with a bullet and incredibly are an outside chance of a top-four spot. But for that to happen, one of Melbourne, Brisbane and Port Adelaide would have to lose their final three games and Carlton would have to win all three of theirs. The more attainable goal for the Blues is securing a finals spot. To do that, they will have to win just one more match which, given the form they’re in, shouldn’t be an issue, even with Adam Cerra (hamstring), Sam Walsh (hamstring), Harry McKay (knee), Matthew Kennedy (knee), Mitch McGovern (hamstring) and Jack Silvagni (knee) remaining sidelined.

6. WESTERN BULLDOGS (11-9, 105.7, 44)
Run home: Haw (Lau), WC (MS), Geel (KP)
Like Carlton, the Bulldogs have one foot in the finals after their comprehensive destruction of Richmond on Friday night, and are a remote chance of a top-four finish. The Dogs will probably need another two wins to guarantee themselves a top-eight berth, and with matches against bottom-three sides Hawthorn and West Coast in the next couple of weeks, should be able to achieve that before the final round. However, the Hawks showed again on Saturday that they cannot be taken lightly, adding Collingwood to their impressive list of scalps this year, which also features Brisbane and St Kilda. If the Dogs can’t close the deal in the next two weeks, they could be faced with the unenviable task of needing to beat the Cats in Geelong in Round 24 to qualify for the finals.

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7. ST KILDA (11-9, 104.9, 44)
Run home: Rich (MS), Geel (MS), BL (G)
How costly might the Saints’ second-half fadeout against Carlton prove to be in the long run? Instead of needing one win from their final three games to make the finals, St Kilda will now almost certainly need two, making their upcoming match against Richmond absolutely critical. If the Saints lose to the Tigers, they will probably have to beat the Cats and Lions (in Brisbane) in back-to-back weeks to finish in the top eight. If they beat the Tigers, they would still have a tough task of having to defeat one of Geelong or Brisbane, but that’s a much more palatable situation than needing to topple both of them. St Kilda’s season really comes down to their next match against Richmond.

8. GWS (11-9, 101.6, 44)
Run home: PA (AO), Ess (GS), Carl (MS)
The Giants were the toast of the AFL world a week ago when they secured a club-record seventh win in a row, but a surprise loss to local rivals Sydney in the derby has served as a sizeable hiccup on their quest for finals football. Like the Saints, GWS will probably need two more wins to return to the September action and with top-five teams Port Adelaide and Carlton in their run home, it becomes imperative for Adam Kingsley’s men to take care of Essendon in Round 23. If they fail to beat the Bombers, then they’ll be faced with the much more difficult task of having to beat both the Power and Blues on the road.

9. GEELONG (10-9-1, 119.2, 42)
Run home: Coll (MCG), StK (MS), WB (KP)
The Cats did what they had to do against Port Adelaide to keep their finals dream alive. Two more wins would probably be enough for them to qualify, especially considering their final two games are against fellow top-eight aspirants St Kilda and the Bulldogs. Win those two, and it would be very hard for them to miss out. Geelong also gets Collingwood at a pretty good time given its significant injury concerns. But while the Cats managed on the weekend without key duo Tom Hawkins and Mark Blicavs, who are both nursing hamstring injuries, will they be able to do so consistently? We will know the answer to that question over the coming weeks.

10. SYDNEY (10-9-1, 111.3, 42)
Run home: GC (SCG), Adel (AO), Melb (SCG)
The Swans are another team which is making a barnstorming finish to the season, having now won four games in a row for the first time this year, and suffering just one loss in its last seven matches. But if Sydney wants to make it back to the finals, it cannot rest on its laurels, and two more wins will go a long way to achieving that goal. With games against the Crows in Adelaide and Melbourne to come, the Swans are certainly not out of the woods.

11. ADELAIDE (10-10, 117.1, 40)
Run home: BL (G), Syd (AO), WC (OS)
After defeating Gold Coast on the weekend, the Crows are still alive, but will more than likely need to win their last three games to finish in the top eight. However, it could all come crashing down for them this weekend when they face the Lions in Brisbane. Chris Fagan’s men have won all nine games at the Gabba this year by an average of 41 points, and Adelaide’s record on the road in 2023 is 1-7. It’s hard to see Adelaide making the finals with 12 wins.

12. ESSENDON (10-10, 98.5, 40)
Run home: NM (MS), GWS (GS), Coll (MCG)
Like the Crows, the Bombers will almost certainly need to win their final three matches to make the finals, and based on their last performance against last-placed West Coast, they are nowhere near being considered finals material. However, they are still alive, but first they will have to negotiate the Kangaroos who, despite losing their last 18 matches, now don’t seem like pushovers given the Dons’ shocking showing against the Eagles. If Essendon gets past North, it would then have to beat both the Giants in Sydney, and Collingwood to reach the magical 13-win threshold. Again, it would be surprising if 12 victories would be enough to finish in the top eight. And with key players Sam Draper (hip), Jordan Ridley (quad) and Jake Stringer (foot) still on the sidelines, this young team is struggling to cope.

13. RICHMOND (9-10-1, 94.8, 38)
Run home: StK (MS), NM (MCG), PA (AO)
The Tigers’ season was dealt a massive blow on Friday night when the Bulldogs smashed them. That result means the Tigers will have to win their final three games to be any chance of playing finals football this year, and with the Power in Adelaide in the final round, Richmond is certainly up against it.

14. GOLD COAST (9-11, 93.8, 36)
Run home: Syd (SCG), Carl (Car), NM (BA)
The Suns are officially at the ‘last-roll-of-the-dice’ stage. They probably won’t make the finals now after losing to Adelaide on Saturday, but they still have a very faint pulse. If they win their last three matches they would be a remote chance of qualifying, but with the Swans in Sydney and Blues still to come, it would take a massive effort for interim coach Steven King to drag his team to the promised land – notwithstanding their brilliant record against Sydney at the SCG.

Legend: BA – Blundstone Arena, Car – Carrara, G – Gabba, GS – Giants Stadium, KP – Kardinia Park, Lau – Launceston, MS – Marvel Stadium, OS – Optus Stadium