Elated Carlton players sing the song after beating Collingwood and continuing their charge to the finals. Photo: GETTY IMAGES

The 2023 home-and-away season is proving to be one of the tightest in VFL/AFL history with 15 teams still in the finals hunt after 20 completed rounds.

With four weeks remaining, we take a look at each live chance and analyse their top-eight, top-four and top-two prospects.

1. COLLINGWOOD (16-3, 132.7 per cent, 64 points)
Run home: Haw (MCG), Geel (MCG), BL (MS), Ess (MCG)
The Magpies had a rare slip-up on the weekend against Carlton, but the good news for them is that the Power and Lions did so as well, meaning they maintain their two-game buffer on the rest of the competition, plus a sizeable percentage gap. Craig McRae’s men need just two more wins to officially lock up top spot, and with Hawthorn and Essendon still to come, they should do that comfortably.

2. PORT ADELAIDE (14-5, 109.8, 56)
Run home: Geel (KP), GWS (AO), Fre (OS), Rich (AO)
The Power are stumbling at the wrong time of the year. After winning 13 games in a row, they’ve lost their last three, and while top spot is now probably out of reach, they have to focus all their energy on locking up the double chance, let alone a top-two spot and an all-important pair of home finals. They dodged a bullet on the weekend with Brisbane losing to Gold Coast, but the Lions and Demons are just one game behind them now. Given the form they’re in, Port’s next two matches in particular are no walks in the park.

3. BRISBANE (13-6, 125.2, 52)
Run home: Fre (OS), Adel (G), Coll (MS), StK (G)
The Lions missed a golden opportunity on the weekend to replace Port in second spot and assume the driver’s seat in the race for two home finals. They’re not out of the hunt, though, and with a pair of games at the Gabba still to come, they should secure a top-four spot. If they can also beat the Dockers and/or Magpies, they will give themselves a fighting chance of overtaking the Power.

4. MELBOURNE (13-6, 124.3, 52)
Run home: NM (BA), Carl (MCG), Haw (MCG), Syd (SCG)
Having now seemingly fixed their forward and ruck woes at the right time of the year, the Demons are suddenly looking like the form team of the competition on the back of four consecutive wins. With matches against the Kangaroos and Hawks in Rounds 21 and 23, they too would back themselves to snare second spot and avoid having to travel interstate in the first week of the finals. In fact, with Clayton Oliver and Bayley Fritsch still to return, Melbourne would like its chances of winning its last four matches.

5. ST KILDA (11-8, 106.5, 44)
Run home: Carl (MS), Rich (MS), Geel (MS), BL (G)
They may not be the sexiest team in the competition, but the Saints just keep doing enough to keep their heads above water as they continue to reap the benefits of the fantastic start they made to the season. But to qualify for the finals in the first year of coach Ross Lyon’s return, they will probably need to win two of their last four games, and looking at their remaining opponents, they are not out of the woods by any stretch. There isn’t one game that could be described as a “gimme”, so they’re still going to have to fight and scrap for a top-eight spot. The eventual returns of Brad Hill, Max King, Seb Ross and Tim Membrey will certainly help their cause.

6. GWS (11-8, 102.4, 44)
Run home: Syd (GS), PA (AO), Ess (GS), Carl (MS)
What a resurgence it’s been from these Giants. Eight weeks ago, they were wallowing in the bottom four, but since then, they have won a club record seven games in a row to storm into finals calculations. Like the Saints, they will also probably have to win two of their last four games to qualify, but based on their current form and their sky-high confidence, they would back themselves in each of those matches. Their best chances for victory appear to be against the Swans and Bombers at this stage, and with Tom Green and Jesse Hogan still to return, who’s to say they won’t extend their winning run to 11 matches?

7. CARLTON (10-8-1, 116.5, 42)
Run home: StK (MS), Melb (MCG), GC (Car), GWS (MS)
Another team that has produced a remarkable turnaround, the Blues were in the bottom four a mere five weeks ago, yet six consecutive wins have catapulted them into the top eight as well. They are currently enjoying their best run of form since 2000, and another two wins should be enough for their first finals appearance in a decade. It’s not the easiest run home, but matches against the Saints and Suns would appear to be their path of least resistance to the finals. The absences of Sam Walsh (hamstring), Adam Cerra (hamstring), Harry McKay (knee) and Matthew Kennedy (knee) for extended periods will make things tougher, but they are playing with such incredible self-belief, having just toppled Collingwood, it would be surprising to see them miss out.

8. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-9, 105.7, 40)
Run home: Rich (MS), Haw (Lau), WC (MS), Geel (KP)
The Bulldogs blew a massive chance to sit fifth on the ladder after they squandered a six-goal lead to GWS on the weekend. Now they’ve made things really tough for themselves, because it will probably take three more wins to make a certainty of finals football. You’d think they should lock away wins against the bottom-three Hawks and Eagles, which means they will have to beat either the Tigers or the Cats to qualify for the top eight. It makes their upcoming match against Richmond enormous, because if they lose that, then they could quite easily find themselves in the unenviable task of having to beat the Cats in Geelong in the final round to make the finals. But their defence keeps taking blows, with Alex Keath (concussion) and Josh Bruce (knee) now injured, while Liam Jones (arm) and Tim O’Brien (hamstring) remain sidelined.

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9. GEELONG (9-9-1, 119.5, 38)
Run home: PA (KP), Coll (MCG), StK (MS), WB (KP)
The Cats could have been nestled in seventh spot this week, but they stunningly fell to the bottom-four Dockers on their home turf, and now they have a huge task ahead of themselves to make the finals. Geelong will probably have to win three more games, which means they can only afford to drop one of their next two against top-two sides Port Adelaide and Collingwood. Lose them both, and it’s probably lights out for Chris Scott’s side. But if they can win one of them, they will stay alive and will then have to defeat both the Saints and Bulldogs.

10. SYDNEY (9-9-1, 111.2, 38)
Run home: GWS (GS), GC (SCG), Adel (AO), Melb (SCG)
The Swans are another team generating momentum at the right time of the season, and after sitting in the bottom four just three weeks ago, they now find themselves just half a game outside the top eight, having lost just one of their last six games. However, they will need at least three wins to qualify, and with road matches against the Giants and Crows to come, as well as an encounter with the Demons, it looks like they’re up against it. Even the Suns have an uncanny knack of rolling the Swans at the SCG, having done so in three of their last four meetings there.

11. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9, 38)
Run home: WB (MS), StK (MS), NM (MCG), PA (AO)
The Tigers have also admirably turned their season around after sitting in the bottom four in Round 16, but they too have a tough task ahead of themselves to make the finals, needing three more wins. It’s certainly not impossible, and with North Melbourne still to come, you’d think that would be a guaranteed four points (although, the Kangaroos did upset Richmond last year). A win against North would mean they would need two more wins from their matches against the Bulldogs, Saints and Power. Given they face Port at Adelaide Oval, Richmond’s best hope of finishing in the top eight would be to beat the Dogs and Saints in the next fortnight. Drop one of those matches, and they would probably have to beat the Power, potentially fighting for a top-two spot themselves, on their home turf in the final round to finish in the eight – hardly an ideal scenario. But if they drop both matches against the Dogs and Saints, their season will be over.

12. ADELAIDE (9-10, 116.0, 36)
Run home: GC (AO), BL (G), Syd (AO), WC (OS)
And now we come to the real long shots, starting with the Crows, who will all probably need to win their final four games to make the finals. It’s likely that Adelaide will beat the Suns this week, and its final match against West Coast should be a breeze. The Crows would be confident against the Swans at home as well. That probably leaves their encounter with the Lions at the Gabba in Round 22 as the defining match of their run home. Lose that, and their finals dream almost certainly goes up in smoke. A reminder that Brisbane have won their last 10 games at the Gabba by an average of six goals, and 28 of their last 31 matches there.

13. ESSENDON (9-10, 98.4, 36)
Run home: WC (MS), NM (MS), GWS (GS), Coll (MCG)
While the Bombers should have few issues in disposing of the Eagles and Kangaroos in their next two matches, the challenge comes in their final two games. Taking on the red-hot Giants at their home ground is never an easy task, and it’s certainly not a happy hunting ground for the Bombers who have lost five of their last six games there. And even if they get through that match victorious, they then have to somehow defeat the premiership favourites in the final round. While it’s true that the Magpies could very well have little to play for by then, with the minor premiership in their keeping, and could therefore subconsciously take the foot off the pedal, it’s still a leap of faith to suggest they would slacken off to such a degree that Essendon could pinch a win – even if the Bombers are desperately fighting for a top-eight spot. Although one thing that could give Brad Scott’s team some cause for optimism is that they have been very competitive against the Magpies in their last three meetings without getting the win.

14. GOLD COAST (9-10, 95.2, 36)
Run home: Adel (AO), Syd (SCG), Carl (Car), NM (BA)
It would also take a minor miracle for the Suns to make the top eight. To beat the Crows, Swans and Blues one after the other would be an incredible achievement. Crazy things continue to happen this year, and granted they just took down premiership contender Brisbane, but even that scenario is hard to envisage coming to fruition. They’re just too inconsistent to be relied upon to secure that hat-trick of wins. If they can somehow do that, though, then all they have to do is beat the Kangaroos in the final round to secure their maiden finals appearance.

15. FREMANTLE (8-11, 89.0, 32)
Run home: BL (OS), WC (OS), PA (OS), Haw (MCG)
Now we’re in Lloyd Christmas territory. For those playing at home, Lloyd was the character played by Jim Carrey in the legendary comedy Dumb And Dumber. When love interest Mary Swanson tells Lloyd there’s a one-in-a-million chance that they would become a couple, Lloyd famously responds: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance?” The Dockers are currently two games out of the top eight, but would need to win all four games and rely on some very good fortune as well to make the finals. With Brisbane and Port Adelaide in their run home, it’s the stuff of fantasy.

Legend: BA – Blundstone Arena, Car – Carrara, G – Gabba, GS – Giants Stadium, KP – Kardinia Park, Lau – Launceston, MS – Marvel Stadium, OS – Optus Stadium