In Chris Fagan’s third year as Brisbane coach, there’s a genuine buzz about what his list can achieve. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
BRISBANE LIONS
2018 record: 5 wins, 17 losses (15th)
List age ranking (oldest to youngest): 17th
List experience ranking (most to fewest games): 17th
Footyology draw ranking (easiest to hardest): eq.7th
THE INS
Lachie Neale (Fremantle), Jarryd Lyons (Gold Coast), Marcus Adams (Western Bulldogs), Lincoln McCarthy (Geelong), Ely Smith (Murray Bushrangers), Tom Berry (GWV Rebels), Tom Joyce (East Fremantle), Connor McFadyen (Wilston Grange), Noah Answerth (Oakleigh Chargers), Tom Fullarton (Brisbane Bullets – NBL), James Madden (Dublin – GAA).
THE OUTS
Dayne Beams (Collingwood), Sam Mayes (Port Adelaide), Cian Hanley (retired), Rohan Bewick (delisted), Tom Bell (delisted), Marco Paparone (delisted), Claye Beams (delisted), Jake Barrett (delisted), Liam Dawson (delisted), Jack Frost (retired).
THE BEST 22
B: Luke Hodge, Harris Andrews, Marcus Adams
HB: Alex Witherden, Darcy Gardiner, Daniel Rich
C: Lachie Neale, Mitch Robinson, Tom Cutler
HF: Lewis Taylor, Daniel McStay, Allen Christensen
F: Charlie Cameron, Eric Hipwood, Oscar McInerney
R: Stefan Martin, Dayne Zorko, Jarryd Lyons
Inter: Cam Rayner, Hugh McCluggage, Lincoln McCarthy, Jarrod Berry
Emerg: Josh Walker, Nick Robertson, Rhys Mathieson, Zac Bailey
THE PROGNOSIS
Brisbane finished 2018 with the same 5-17 win-loss ratio as it had the previous season. Yet the outlook this time is considerably different.
The 2017 Lions finished on the bottom of the ladder with a percentage of only 74 and suffered eight defeats by more than 50 points. Last year’s group was a lot more solid. The percentage was 89 with five defeats by seven points or less and only two by more than 50.
Entering Chris Fagan’s third year as coach, there’s a genuine buzz about what this young group, the second-youngest and second-least experienced in the competition, may be able to achieve. And that’s only been heightened by two very impressive JLT Series wins against two top-four teams from last year in Hawthorn and Melbourne.
The Lions’ list, despite the departure of Dayne Beams, looks stronger again via the addition of Fremantle ball magnet Lachie Neale, another underrated midfielder in Jarryd Lyons, defender Marcus Adams and a still-untapped forward talent in Lincoln McCarthy.
That’s in addition to the large band of youngsters who continue to improve their strength, experience and standing, Harris Andrews, Jarrod Berry, Hugh McCluggage and Alex Witherden, all of whom finished in the top 10 of Brisbane’s best and fairest count, leading the way.
The upward curve is obvious. But if it is to continue in 2019, so must ground continue to be made in several important areas.
Brisbane is a pretty team to watch in full flight. But it has consistently been found wanting on the pressure front. Its ranking of 14th for contested possession differential was in fact its best rating for 10 years, and indicator of just how far off the pace the club had slipped since its premiership glory days.
The Lions were last on Champion Data’s pressure ratings last year. As a result, the ball ping-ponged out of their forward line with regularity, their time in forward half ranking a lowly 15th. It’s not just coincidence the top five teams of 2018 also ranked top five for that measurement.
Brisbane’s backline is sound, its midfield continues to grow. Ultimately, the Lions’ 2019 standing will probably be determined by how much more Fagan can get from his forward set-up.
The return of Charlie Cameron, who missed the entire second half of last season with a foot injury, will help not only the scoreboard, but those pressure and time in forward half measurements. A better year from Lewis Taylor would also go a long way towards that aim.
Don’t discount, also, the potential in former Cat McCarthy, always highly-rated internally, but never healthy enough to get a decent crack at it. The signs he’s shown in pre-season have been encouraging indeed.
Big years from that trio would, alongside the undisputed key position potential of Eric Hipwood and his tall support act Daniel McStay, make Brisbane a far more dangerous proposition forward of centre.
And like most areas with Fagan’s team heading into the new season, some incremental improvements by individuals and in specific areas of the game style could make a far bigger difference to the overall performance and, of course, the win-loss tally.
THE PREDICTION
12th. Just about everything would have to go right for the Lions to sneak a first finals appearance since 2009, but they’re certainly leading the category of potential surprise packet. And if it doesn’t happen this year, it appears only a matter of time.
THE LADDER SO FAR (click on team to read)
12. BRISBANE LIONS
13. PORT ADELAIDE
14. WESTERN BULLDOGS
15. FREMANTLE
16. CARLTON
17. ST KILDA
18. GOLD COAST
