Tom Liberatore and Jack Macrae celebrate a goal during the Bulldogs’ epic semi-final victory over Brisbane. Photo: GETTY IMAGES.
Last Saturday night’s semi-final between Brisbane and Western Bulldogs was one of the best, most dramatic finals we’ve seen for many years. For many people, it might also have awakened a sense of deja vu.
The various twists and turns, countless moments of significance, narrow margin and above all, the gripping tension of those four quarters, echoed back to another Bulldog triumph – their 2016 preliminary final win over Greater Western Sydney.
That was another knockout final won interstate against an opponent playing on its own ground. But that’s hardly the only similarity between the Bulldogs’ famous finals campaign of 2016 and what’s going on five years later.
Like this season, the Bulldogs then were trying to win a premiership the hard way from the bottom half of the final eight. But like this version, they were better-prepared than nearly any other team in a similar position.
They’d finished only seventh, but with 15 wins, more than any other finalist to finish that low on the ladder, and the same number of victories as this season. Like this year, they had copped an unfortunately-timed run of injuries to key players which saw them fall from third spot on the ladder to miss out on the double chance.
When most of those players returned for the Bulldogs’ first final against West Coast in Perth, the Dogs’ self-belief soared. And thus was launched one of the game’s most amazing finals campaigns, which in successive weeks accounted for the Eagles, then reigning premier Hawthorn, the Giants, and on grand final day, the top-of-the-ladder Sydney.
One of coach Luke Beveridge’s greatest assets is his capacity to have his players back their own abilities and refuse to be intimidated by the scale of the odds against them. It was never more obvious than five years ago, when his team started underdog in every one of those four finals.
It’s why the bookmakers who have installed the Bulldogs at $2.78 the outsider of the four preliminary finalists could again be licking their wounds come Sunday morning. Well, that plus the fact this Bulldogs line-up, pound for pound, is better equipped to end up with a flag than its famous predecessor.
The two versions of the Bulldogs are comparable statistically in several areas. They have both been prolific with handball, the Dogs ranked No.1 in the competition in 2016 and second in 2021.
They’ve both been strong contested ball teams, ranked first on differentials five years ago and third this season. They’ve both been good at the clearance, second in 2016, first this year. They’ve both had good defensive records, the Dogs third for fewest points conceded in their flag year, fourth in 2021.
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But the 2016 version, as good as it was, never headed the ladder at any point after round two of that season. This year, the Dogs sat on top for eight of 23 rounds. They went only 3-3 against the top four, but one of those three defeats (against this week’s opponent Port Adelaide) came by only two points, and another (against Geelong) only after the siren. The other loss, to Melbourne midway through the season, was avenged in a return meeting.
And where this year’s model is vastly superior is in its firepower. The Bulldogs of 2016 ranked a lowly 12th for points scored, the lowest of any AFL premiership team since Sydney in 2005.
This season, they ranked second, behind only Brisbane. They create way more scoring opportunities (first in the competition for inside 50 entries compared to seventh in 2016), and they’re far more efficient with them, too, ranked first for scores per inside 50 (in 2016, that ranking was a potentially costly 15th).
There’s also a degree of flexibility about this line-up Beveridge couldn’t boast even in 2016. Obviously, Cody Weightman is a big loss up forward, but there’s several options to replace him.
Perhaps it’s last week’s medical sub Jason Johannisen, maybe a longer shot in the defensive forward qualities of veteran Mitch Wallis, or even the possibility of stretching Port Adelaide’s height in defence with Jamarra Ugle-Hagan.
The Dogs have so many midfield types who can play elsewhere that even if skipper Marcus Bontempelli doesn’t get to the line, Beveridge at least won’t be forced to fit a square peg into a round hole.
And in the ruck, if Beveridge is concerned about the strength advantage on which Port’s Scott Lycett capitalised in the teams’ round 23 clash, Stefan Martin is a more-than-handy fallback option to support Tim English.
The Bulldogs have turned over a lot of players since that 2016 premiership. There’s only 10 players of that flag-winning 22 even left on the list.
Some of the additions, like Aaron Naughton, Bailey Smith, Bailey Dale and Alex Keath, are among the Dogs’ very best players, and have given them a consistency across the ground the flag-winning team didn’t necessarily have.
And significantly, those who were there five years ago and still are in 2021, are also now in a position to help not only in terms of their performance, but in recreating that sense of destiny that grew by the week in September 2016.
I don’t bet on football. But if I did, I’d be sorely tempted to grab a slice of that $2.78 on offer for the Dogs against Port Adelaide on Saturday night. I’m starting to get the odd 2016 vibe about their finals campaign. And we know how that turned out.
This article first appeared at ESPN.
Not this year Roco. Port by 30+ points. Too fresh and too hungry. The Dept of Youth will run amok in the second half.