The Cats are all smiles during last Saturday’s ominous-looking win over Essendon. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
It’s hard to say which has been more erratic this season, Geelong’s form or the critical appraisal of the Cats’ 2023 fortunes.
The party was declared over by some just three rounds into the 2023 season, by which time Geelong’s scoreline was 0-3.
Order was popularly believed to have been restored when the Cats won the next five. But then they lost three on the trot again, including, unthinkably, to Greater Western Sydney at the supposedly impenetrable GMHBA Stadium.
The six games since have served up a bit of everything; wins, losses and a draw, and at least two more obituaries of sorts, one following a comprehensive defeat at the hands of Port Adelaide by 39 points after Geelong had at one stage led by four goals, and again just two weeks ago when the Cats were lucky indeed to hang on for a draw against a Sydney side which kicked a comically inaccurate 6.18.
Yet here we are a fortnight on, and Geelong is suddenly fifth on the ladder, having dispensed of its last two opponents by a combined total of 139 points. So are the Cats a serious flag chance again? I honestly can’t make up my mind.
These last two victories – a 10-goal belting of North Melbourne and Saturday night’s 77-point demolition job on Essendon – have been powerful statements, no doubt.
The opening quarter against the Bombers was complete dominance with 7.5 to a solitary behind, Geelong racking up no fewer than 20 inside 50s for the term and taking six marks inside the forward zone. It wasn’t the more once-predictable names leading the charge either, Max Holmes, 100th-game Gryan Miers and Tom Atkins leading the disposals at the first break.
But like the win over the Roos, this was at a venue at which Geelong has now won 29 of its last 34 games and traded on considerable advantages there.
North Melbourne is second-last on the ladder with two wins for good reason. And the Bombers just seem to get spooked by the Cats time after time, Geelong kicking the first seven goals of this clash after booting the first six against the Dons back in round seven.
A side back in town? Or just one which still deals ruthlessly with weakened or tentative opposition in favourable circumstances?
I have no doubt Geelong is good enough at its best. That its best may indeed still be better than anyone else’s. And that that best is going to improve further with the returns of the likes of midfielder Cam Guthrie and defender Jed Bews.
But do the Cats now have the profile of a side which can string enough performances like Saturday night’s together to make it back-to-back flags?
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I feel as though to do so, they’d need to finish in the top four. But with six games remaining, the top three seemingly out of reach and fourth-placed Melbourne a game-and-a-half ahead of the Cats and with a manageable run home, I’m not sure they’re going to get there.
That would make the task four wins from four finals over four weeks, and even with the advantage of the pre-finals bye these days, for the oldest side in the competition, that’s something to be seriously considered as a big factor.
This week’s road trip to play Brisbane at the Gabba is huge simply as gauge as to just how worried the top four should be about Geelong. The Cats beat Melbourne narrowly at home a few weeks back, but pulled up short against Collingwood and Port Adelaide.
Statistically, they’re in interesting territory, too, potent offensively, but with some clear chinks in the armour defensively.
For example, last year Geelong ranked third for fewest opposition scores per inside 50 at just 39.7 per cent. But this year, before Saturday night’s drubbing of the Bombers, in contrast, they were a lowly 16th at 46 per cent.
That’s a measure in which nine of the last 10 premiership sides have ranked top six. And it’s not the only reliable indicator in which the Cats aren’t tracking well.
Every one of the past 10 premiers has ranked top six for fewest points against (Geelong is currently seventh), top six for fewest points conceded from turnovers (the Cats are 11th), and top six for defensive 50 to forward 50 transition (Cats 13th).
Alternately, though not as failsafe a guide in recent times, Geelong’s rankings for territory, scoring and conversion of opportunities are impressive.
Geelong’s run home has a bit of everything, too. The next month is tough indeed, playing three of the top four. But the Cats do get Port Adelaide at home, along with Fremantle and the Western Bulldogs.
I’ve got them winning four of their last six. But you can bet your life as much as the talk this week will be along the lines of “can they do it again?”, a bad loss at the Gabba against the Lions on Saturday afternoon will spark more end of an era discussion.
I’m not foolish enough to dismiss Geelong’s chances of going back-to-back yet. But I’m also pretty convinced this isn’t the same juggernaut which steamrolled through the second half of 2022. Which is the correct narrative? Perhaps right now even the Cats themselves can’t be sure. Let alone the rest of us.
This article first appeared at ESPN.
