St Kilda’s Michael Gardiner celebrates after kicking the winning goal in a Round 14 2009 epic. Photo: FAIRFAX SYNDICATION
It’s 10 years now since two teams seemed so far ahead of the rest of the AFL competition that it seemed everyone else was playing for third.
To say Geelong and St Kilda were the AFL pacesetters of 2009 would be an understatement. The Cats had lost just two games the previous year. Unfortunately, the second was a grand final. Badly stung, they were hell-bent on atonement.
St Kilda, meanwhile, in its third year under Ross Lyon, had become a steely defensive machine, refusing to allow opponents an inch. The Saints could score themselves, though. And the combination was blowing everyone else off the park.
By the time the two teams finally met in round 14 that season, incredibly, neither had lost a single game, four games ahead of their nearest rivals. And their clash at the then Telstra Dome was suitably epic, one of the best home and away games ever played, eventually won by St Kilda by just six points after a towering mark and goal from Saints’ big man Michael Gardiner in the final two minutes.
That classic would be reprised in another classic on grand final day, this time the Cats prevailing. Geelong had lost only three games of 25. The Saints, having won 19 straight, in the end faltered just enough to lose a flag. Even then, had the Cats not kicked a last goal after the siren on grand final day, the aggregate of their eventual three losses from 25 games would have been just 13 points.
A decade on, how do the best teams of 2019 measure up? Well, as good as the Cats of this year have been, and at times Collingwood, I’d still have my money on either of those 2009 teams against both every time.
And the point, you ask? It’s that I think there’s a trade-off football made a long time ago which, while delivering some obvious benefits, is now also in other ways coming home to roost.
We write incessantly that the AFL competition is more even than ever, and across the board, it’s a claim hard to dispute.
The draft and salary cap launched that ship from the docks well over 30 years ago now, and increasing professionalism in terms of preparation, fitness, development and coaching have continued to narrow the gap.
In the last few years, we’ve seen one club win a flag after finishing the home and away season seventh, and another triumph after not having made finals the previous year. When Brisbane was wooden spooner in 2017, it finished last with more wins than any bottom side for 20 years.
Any team, yes, even Carlton, can beat any other on a given day. So what’s been the cost? I think quality, even at the top end. And that’s even in a year where the best few teams look a cut above the rest.
We’re still short of the halfway mark of 2019, but I’d be staggered if our eventual premiership side isn’t one of the current top five – Geelong, Collingwood, GWS, Richmond or West Coast.
The Cats and Pies have lost only three games of 20 between them. The Giants are the only team to knock over Geelong – on its own patch, no less – while the Tigers and Eagles, both plagued by injury, are starting to gather some serious momentum and have a host of players to return, and thus plenty of scope for improvement.
But the rest? Pretty mediocre, to be blunt. In fact, I’d argue we seem to have a bigger group of so-so teams in 2019 than we’ve seen for a while.
Sixth on the ladder currently is Brisbane. A surprise packet and a good story, sure, but does anyone seriously think the Lions can do any damage in September?
Their time will come, no doubt, but any achievement at the pointy end of this season will very much be a bonus. Still very young and inexperienced overall, Brisbane has copped a hammering against both Essendon and Collingwood, and four of its wins have been by 22 points or less.
The Lions have, however, knocked over the defending premier at least, which is more than can be said for the next two teams on the ladder, Adelaide and Fremantle.
The only victory the Crows have had to date over a current top eight team came in a very dour, low-scoring clash with Freo.
The Dockers, meanwhile, did manage to beat GWS on the road and just got over the line last weekend at home against Brisbane. But they’ve also lost to Gold Coast and Essendon, and still struggle to score, currently ranked only 13th for points scored.
Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and St Kilda are the other three teams besides the Crows and Dockers with at least a 50-50 win-loss record. The Saints, particularly, given the lowly pre-season expectations and the amount of injuries they’ve endured to their best players, would be quietly pleased to boast even that.
But they, too, and certainly the Hawks and Power, have all had some ordinary moments already this season. None of them have been able to string together any more than two wins on the trot. So what chance they could win three or four in a row when it matters most against three or four consistently decent quality teams?
And what about those at the top? Geelong is hard to fault. But the Cats did manage to lose to the Giants at home, and only three of their nine wins so far have been against fellow top eight members.
Collingwood’s two defeats have come against the Cats and Eagles. No shame there. But the Pies have been playing in fits and starts, too, relying on a big quarter here or there to get the job done, arguably the case now for the past five games.
GWS has mostly been impressive, but had shockers in Perth and again at the MCG against Hawthorn, as well as losing to Fremantle in the normally safe surrounds of Canberra.
The Giants’ best remains imposing indeed, but are they still prone, even occasionally, to switch off for too long, be that in defeat or even, as against Melbourne in the last quarter last Sunday, with the game sewn up?
Richmond and West Coast meanwhile, should theoretically get better with the returns of the likes of Jack Riewoldt and Trent Cotchin for the Tigers, or Nic Naitanui or important defender Tom Barrass for the Eagles. But it doesn’t always work out like that, the interruption to the existing line-up sometimes upsetting a delicate chemistry as much as adding to it.
Collingwood’s current winning streak of seven on end is impressive enough in the current environment. Could these Pies jag 19 wins on end, though? I’d like a decent amount of money on the answer being no.
It doesn’t mean they, or the Cats, or one of those other five which might go to a higher peak over the next few months, aren’t very good football teams.
They are, however, in my view, more vulnerable, more prone to an off day, and less guaranteed to deliver when it counts than their predecessors of the “noughties”.
The upshot? September, finals, and the destination of the flag are more unpredictable than they used to be. Personally, though, I’d like to also see another premiership team which could at least arguably rank with some of the greatest we’ve seen. And increasingly, I have my doubts we will again.
*This article first appeared at INKL.
Just found this one a couple of weeks late. You would have made a nice little return on betting against the Pies winning 19 straight… but you wouldn’t have found anyone to take you up on it, not even Eddie or Joffa would have.
2007 to 2009 were a bit standout in any era for one or two teams having very long winning streaks.
The competition is more even now, tho this year the gap between the top 4 and the others is growing. Tho, maybe we’re just spoilt by 2016 to 2018, which really were unusual in the evenness of the top 8.
Going a bit off topic…It’s interesting though when you look back. Since this final 8 system began (2000), of the the 38 teams who’ve contested the grand finals, only three have come from outside the top 3 (Pies 4th 2002, Swans 4th 2006, Dogs 7th 2016).
This strongly suggests any team below third is just making up the numbers.
So, we keep talking about the need to finish top 4… but we should actually be talking about finishing top 3. Just going thru the ladder predictor and generally selecting the higher placed team, the Pies will slip to fourth. The key game for their season, if they don’t want to finish in the dreaded fourth, could well be versus Eagles in Perth.
What’s also interesting is, for the two teams that make the grand final since 2000, the hardest position to then win from is first, having only won 42.9% of grand finals competed in, well short of second and third who have won 58.3% and 55.6% of grand finals they’ve contested.
Overall, second position is the best launching pad to a flag, with a success rate of 36.8%, a bit ahead of first at 31.6% and third with 26.3%.
However… If not for the anomaly of 2016 – which is an anomaly in most ways you look at it – then first and second would show an equal chance of winning the flag and first would be 50/50 for grand finals contested.
But the big takeaway is, if you want to win the flag, you’ve gotta finish top 3. End of off-topic. 🙂