Dom Sheed’s late goal saw West Coast win an unexpected premiership in 2018. Who will it be this year? Photo: GETTY IMAGES
After last year’s unforgettable grand final with West Coast prevailing over Collingwood by five points after Dom Sheed’s heroics, the footy world is eagerly anticipating the kick-off to the new AFL season.
It all kicks off when Carlton plays Richmond on Thursday March 21st at the MCG.
Bookmakers currently have Richmond as premiership favourites, closely followed by Collingwood, Melbourne and then last year’s surprise flag winner West Coast.
These are generally the accepted top- four contenders, even making ESPN’s way-too-early-predictions list all the way back in October 2018, less than 48 hours after the conclusion of the season.
There are two notable exceptions: West Coast, which was set low but then bumped back up in the later list, and GWS, which was moved down after losing key players Dylan Shiel, Rory Lobb and Tom Scully to trades and Ryan Griffen to retirement.
Here is theroar.com’s predictions for who will make the top eight.
1. West Coast
2. Melbourne
3. Richmond
4. Collingwood
5. Essendon
6. GWS
7. Hawthorn
8. Adelaide
The Roar believes the Eagles will carry on their momentum from last year’s premiership and finish on the top of the ladder.
They are aligned with the bookies in predicting that Melbourne, Collingwood and Richmond will also be up there.
Of last year’s finalists, Sydney and Geelong have been left out in favour of Essendon and Adelaide, which is the general outlook from most AFL fans.
The rule changes
There’s speculation this year as to how well bookie favourites Richmond will perform under the controversial new AFL rule of introducing 6-6-6 starting positions for all centre bounces. There is a certain amount of fan angst about the changes being made, with some of the most fundamental changes in AFL history being made.
The belief regarding the formation changes and Richmond is that this will affect the team more than others, because in the 2018 season the Tigers used the formation least of all teams in the league, just 3.6 per cent of the time. The Tigers will have to reconsider certain strategies.
This data comes from the yearly statistical analysis provided by Champion Data’s AFL Prospectus, and from the data we can see teams like Brisbane are unlikely to suffer from the formation changes given that they used the 6-6-6 formation at an AFL record 67.9 per cent.
New signings and rumours
Trade week kicked off in October 2018 and with changes made by the league to turn it into a two-day event.
A lot of changes have been made in the last few months, and player movement will reportedly become more flexible after the 2019 season, with a rule in place to help free agents and delisted players. Under the new ruling, free agent recruits will be eligible for free agency again when their latest contract expires.
This comes after the AFL introduced a pre-season supplementation period, which saw Tom Campbell, Shane Mumford and Zac Clarke among others getting picked as injury replacements for the 2019 season. The league is considering also introducing a mid-season trade period.
Richmond may have to delay the starting of star recruit Tom Lynch until at least after round one as the power forward underwent knee surgery in July and is still recovering.
Brisbane secured Jarryd Lyons and Lachie Neale for 2019 to bolster its midfield, but lost star midfielder Dayne Beams, who requested a move back to the Pies. Beams will give Collingwood even more star power and enhance the Pies’ premiership credentials.
Other major moves included Dylan Shiel joining Essendon, which suddenly makes John Worsfold’s team look like a top four contender, or potentially more. Jesse Hogan was shipped to Fremantle to return to his native WA, but the Demons stocked up their backline through the addition of Steven May.
North Melbourne was also a big player in the off-season, beefing up its midfield stocks with Jared Polec, Dom Tyson and Aaron Hall. North could make the leap into the fop eight after being thereabouts last season.
Other Sports Predictions
In other sports news, with the 22nd NRL season kick-off drawing nearer, we’ve seen a lot of speculation surrounding which team will go to the next level.
Currently in the “most likely” category according to sporting-odds aggregator Oddschecker we have the Sydney Roosters, Brisbane Broncos and Melbourne Storm. This is to be expected, as these are the top teams in the league, but it’s worth noting that the Roosters have the lead among the three in terms of bookmaker expectations.
Excitement continues to build toward the season opener between Melbourne and Brisbane on Thursday 14th March at Melbourne’s AAMI Park.
Both the AFL and NRL should deliver exciting seasons with a number of contenders looming to take home the ultimate prize in 2019.
