Geelong under Chris Scott has the strength and experience in an unusually uncertain September. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
It’s easy to make flippant predictions, particularly when it comes to AFL football, a world of innumerable opinions, most of which will be conveniently forgotten and overtaken by the next big tip should they not come to pass.
But what if your tipping is on the proviso of what I like to call the “firing squad test”?
Being lined up against the wall and asked to tip an outcome correctly or be sprayed with bullets would concentrate the mind wonderfully, you’d think. And surely make one far more likely to play the percentages rather than attempt to pull a metaphorical rabbit from the tipping hat.
So under those circumstances, ie. your life depending upon it, who would you be tipping to win the 2024 AFL premiership?
Tough call, isn’t it? And because of those at least hypothetical stakes, mine remains unaltered from before the weekend, despite the team in question suffering one of its worst couple of losses of the season. And that tip is still Geelong.
The Cats have slipped to fifth in flag betting at $9, behind Sydney ($4), Port Adelaide ($5), GWS ($6) and Brisbane ($8) after Saturday night’s dramatic fade-out against St Kilda, when they uncharacteristically surrendered a 33-point half-time lead, conceding 12 of the next 15 goals to the Saints.
Might be fair enough, too, even allowing for the fact Geelong plays West Coast at home on Saturday, and the Eagles, after Sunday’s insipid performance at home against Carlton, are clearly impatient for holidays to start.
But I will still argue that the Cats are a safer flag bet than any of those four teams above them in the market, let alone those at longer odds. For a number of reasons, but mostly in comparison to their flag rivals.
Full credit to Sydney for remaining on top of the ladder most of this season. But the Swans of the past two months are a significantly lesser entity than that which won 13 of their first 14 games.
That’s reflected most obviously in attack, where they topped 100 points in 10 of the first 14 games but have done so once in the past eight. Even John Longmire must be having massive doubts about the capacity of key forwards Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean to stand up and deliver in the pressure of a finals series.
Port Adelaide, and Brisbane, meanwhile, are I think compromised by what I’d call the “shoot yourself in the foot” factor. As good as they can be, neither would you stake your life upon not blowing a golden opportunity, be that having an untimely shocker on a particular day, or not making the most of chances when they presented themselves.
Port’s recent finals history is dominated by the former narrative, and yes, that does present a significant psychological hurdle this September. And you won’t get many better examples of the blown chances story than Brisbane on Saturday.
I think there’s every chance Joe Daniher’s missed shot to put Brisbane four goals up with under seven minutes remaining against Collingwood will be the kick which costs the Lions a flag.
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Had he nailed it, they’d now be two wins and a home preliminary final from a grand final spot. But now it seems likely that to grab that elusive premiership, they’ll need to play four weeks in a row and win three interstate finals on end. Can they do that? Not in my view.
I think the Giants are probably more dependable than Brisbane or Port. But they cut it fine. Of their past seven wins in a row, five have been by three goals or less. Across the whole season, there’s been nine wins by 24 points or less. That’s a small margin for error. Can you do that three times in three white-hot finals? I have my doubts.
Of course, there’s “ifs” around Geelong as well, mostly these days about its midfield, which seems increasingly Patrick Dangerfield-dependent and which most game analysts consider the Cats’ biggest weakness.
But it can be a fine line. Whilst Geelong currently ranks in the lower third for both contested possession and clearance differential, the numbers are a lot more favourable for contested ball and groundballs post-clearance, their pressure applied ranking is top six, and there’s still some room for manoeuvre with greater use of Max Holmes at the bounces, or Tom Stewart, and in the return from injury of Tanner Bruhn.
That’s technicalities, though. On a more fundamental level, when I think of what wins finals, particularly in a year when maintaining consistency and thus generating momentum has been an issue at some stage for every team, I inevitably think strength and experience. And on those markers, not surprisingly, Geelong is a clear standout.
I also think of the capacity to rise on demand to either the big occasion or a challenge, and that also makes me think about the Cats.
Not that it was against a terrific team as it soon transpired, but Geelong’s performance on a Saturday night against Essendon back in Round 16 has really stayed with me.
The Cats had been humbled like seldom before by 10 goals plus against Carlton the previous week, had lost six games of their past seven, and were lucky to only be a goal down against the Bombers at half-time.
But their second half that night was superb, as they imperiously swept Essendon aside with brutal strength and efficiency, 10 goals to two after half-time the damage. That launched another string of six wins from seven games until Saturday night’s glitch.
And with top four still more than likely simply with victory over West Coast, and even potentially a home qualifying final with a big enough win and losses by Port Adelaide (in Perth) and GWS (against the Dogs in Ballarat), I think a mere glitch is what the loss will prove to be.
I have a hunch that might well be Geelong’s last defeat this season, too. Would I stake my life on it? Obviously, I’d prefer not to. But put me in front of a firing squad and demand a 2024 premiership tip right now? Yep, I’m sticking with the Cats.
This article first appeared at ESPN.
