Why your team can/can’t win the 2023 AFL premiership

Keys to September. (From left) Zak Butters, Charlie Cameron, Nick Daicos, Charlie Curnow, Errol Gulden. Picture: ESPN

We seem to say it every year, but in 2023 the premiership race really IS wide open. There’s no fewer than five teams all paying $10 or less to win the flag, and even one of the three supposed “outsiders” winning would scarcely be a massive shock.

Every finalist seems to have a decent case for its premiership potential. Yet so are they flawed just enough to also mount one against their prospects. Which team has the most convincing argument? Here’s how I see it.

COLLINGWOOD
Why they CAN win the flag
Collingwood was equal or outright top of the ladder for all but one round of the 2023 season, losing only five of 23 games, a couple of them by under three goals, and a couple more without key players Darcy Moore and Nick Daicos. Both will be back for the bulk of the Pies’ September campaign. And so is their potency, Collingwood cranking up its scoreboard potency with three 100-points-plus scores in its last three home and away games and its stingiest defensive performance in the last. They play an at-times breathtaking, sweeping brand with quick, faultless ball movement from the back half. And their capacity to stay in games then come over the top of opponents is already fabled.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
Momentum is big in September, and Collingwood lost its at precisely the wrong moment, with three losses and another narrow victory over also-ran Geelong coming in the last five games. Creative heartbeat Nick Daicos isn’t due to return until week two of the campaign, by which time he will have been out of action for six weeks. Skipper Darcy Moore might be lacking touch as well. While they rank fourth for scoring, the Pies still lack a star key forward target often important in the chaotic mess of finals football, Brody Mihocek workmanlike rather than brilliant. Nor is their contested ball and clearance game among the upper echelon of the competition.

BRISBANE
Why they CAN win the flag
The Lions are hitting all the right markers in terms of potential premiers. They’re in form, having won nine of their past 11 games and losing another by a point. They’re ranked second for points scored and sixth for fewest points conceded, which is where 15 of the past 17 premiers have been. Mostly, though, having finished second, they now have the exquisite opportunity of playing two finals en route to grand final day on their home fortress at the Gabba, where they have won all 11 games this year, and an incredible 30 of their last 33 over three seasons. That is a phenomenal advantage, and it gives Brisbane every chance of at least making it to the grand final stage.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
It’s a thorny topic with coach Chris Fagan and his crew for obvious reasons, but, put simply, you can’t win a premiership if it has to be won at a venue where you rarely, if ever win. Yes, the Lions won a final at the MCG last year against Melbourne, but that remains their only victory at the ground in 15 attempts stretching back to 2014. Even this year, they’ve been beaten there by Hawthorn and somehow conspired to lose to the Demons after leading by 24 points with seven minutes to go. That hints to a bogey becoming increasingly an issue. And their 3-6 finals record since 2019 is another statistic you fear may play on Brisbane minds when it comes crunch time.

PORT ADELAIDE
Why they CAN win the flag
Finals are often about territory. Every one of the last 10 premiers has ranked top six in the AFL for inside 50 and time in forward half differentials, and forward half intercepts and points scored from them. And Port Adelaide does territory very well, currently ranked third, first, second and first respectively in those categories. The Power have beaten everyone in the eight save Collingwood (whom they pushed to within two points) and Carlton (who they took on with a stack of injuries). They smashed qualifying final opponent Brisbane last time they met, and have won their last two games at the MCG. And there’s no shortage of star quality in AFL coach’s award winner Zak Butters and seventh-placed Connor Rozee.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
As good as Port Adelaide has been this year, the Power’s defence, statistically at least, remains a worry. The Power rank only 12th for fewest points conceded, and they’re 13th for opposition points per inside 50. Not a single one of the last 20 AFL premiership teams has ranked any lower than fifth for points against. And every one of the past 10 premiers has ranked at least top six for scores against per inside 50. The Power has managed to recover from their four losses in a row, but of their last three wins, only the dismantling of GWS was overly impressive, Port having to struggle to get past a couple of also-rans in Fremantle and Richmond.

MELBOURNE
Why they CAN win the flag
Melbourne ticks so many of the traditional premiership boxes. The Demons are as good, if not better, than any rival in both midfield and defence. Steven May and Jake Lever are superb marshalls of a backline which ranks either first or second for all of points against, points against per inside 50 and points conceded from turnovers. Midfield bulls Christian Petracca, Clayton Oliver and Jack Viney are proven flag winners and the engine room is even more important come September. The Dees are also a great territory team, ranked first or second for forward half intercepts and inside 50 and time in forward half differentials. And like 2021, Melbourne’s offence has become more potent again late in the home and away season after some earlier struggles to score.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
That rediscovered scoreboard potency was due in no small part to the form of Jake Melksham, who’d averaged nearly two goals per game in nine games before he tragically tore his ACL in the last game against Sydney. Tom McDonald is a likely replacement, but not necessarily like-for-like, and the Dees lose the tantalising prospect of an in-form Melksham in a tandem with Bayley Fritsch. They’re also not a side which maximises its opportunities as it is, ranked only a lowly 14th for scores per inside 50. And failure to convert opportunities come the pointy end is often fatal.

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CARLTON
Why they CAN win the flag
Yes, the Blues would have to do it the hard way, coming from fifth. But Carlton’s form over the back half of the season has been just as if not more solid than any of the top four, with nine wins on end until defeat in the final round against GWS with nothing at stake. And they’ve beaten three of the top four in the last seven rounds of the season. Carlton also stacks up very well defensively and in midfield. The Blues rank fourth for points conceded and scores from opposition forward entries, and first for preventing scores from stoppages, while midfield they’re first for contested ball and third for clearances on differentials. And Coleman medallist Charlie Curnow is on a roll, with 27 goals in his past six games.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
Carlton is capable, but the fact remains winning the flag from the bottom half of the eight means winning four cut-throat games in four weeks against four quality opponents. And in 11 games this season against other top eight teams, the Blues emerged with only a 5-6 record. Scoring is also an issue for Carlton. The Blues finished the season only ninth for points scored, seventh for points per inside 50 and worryingly, just 14th for points scored from turnovers, in which eight of the past 10 premiers have ranked at least top six. Is there enough of a Plan B on the goalkicking front if Curnow is held? Only a handful of teammates have kicked more than 20 goals, and the Blues don’t generate many goals from their on-ballers.

ST KILDA
Why they CAN win the flag
Defence on its own might not win you premierships, but it certainly gives you a chance. And the Saints under Ross Lyon were statistically the best defensive team of the regular season, conceding on average just 71.6 points per game. They’re good defensively around the ground, too, ranked top four for both post-clearance ground ball and contested possession on the differentials. And they were ranked No.1 for transition from defence to attack. St Kilda also boasted a couple of All-Australian backmen in Callum Wilkie and Jack Sinclair. Not bad for a team nobody seemed to rate much even when they continued to win. Which is just the way Lyon will like it heading into this finals campaign.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
Defence is a cornerstone of all good teams. But you also must be able to score. And St Kilda don’t do it nearly enough. The Saints rank a dismal 15th for points scored, the only three teams they outscore the bottom three on the 2023 ladder. It’s an extraordinary contrast with their defensive profile. And it means the Saints would have to create history, no previous premier having ranked as low for offence. Indeed, only three of the past 20 flag winners have ranked any lower than sixth for points scored. That the other seven finalists this September all rank at least top nine for scores says plenty.

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
Why they CAN win the flag
Inspiringly led on-field by new All-Australian skipper Toby Greene and brilliantly coached by debutant in the driver’s seat Adam Kingsley, the Giants are the finalist of which perhaps the least will be expected but whom every rival will remain anxious about facing. Plenty of pundits had this team bottom four pre-season. Their 13 wins have clearly exceeded expectations, but their defeats say as much, eight of their 10 losses by just 21 points or less, GWS consistently competitive at a minimum. A good pressure team which ranks highly for scores from turnovers, the Giants have knocked over Melbourne, Carlton and Sydney, and pushed both Brisbane and St Kilda all the way. No team can afford to underestimate them, regardless of where they finished on the ladder.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
As honest a competitor as is GWS, the records show that in nine games against top eight opponents this season, the Giants went 3-6, and only 1-3 against the top four, with two heavy defeats coming against the strength of Collingwood and Port Adelaide. That is reflected statistically, too, with GWS not ranking particularly highly in important categories. Indeed, of six statistical markers in which every one of the past 10 premiers has ranked top six, the Giants are only mid-table at best in any of them. They’re also only eighth and 10th in the all-important points for and points against rankings, and none of the past 20 premiers has looked anything like that poor for those categories.

SYDNEY
Why they CAN win the flag
The Swans won six of their last seven games, and six of their 12 victories this season came on the road, whilst their last MCG victory came in last season’s qualifying final against Melbourne, so it’s not like road trips or away finals faze John Longmire’s team. Sydney ranks No.1 in the competition for midfield pressure applied, and its defence holds up well, ranking top six for both fewest oppositions points per inside 50 and points from turnovers, both very reliable premiership indicators.
Why they CAN’T win the flag
Despite their late-season rally, the Swans have shown consistently this season they can’t match it with the very best teams in the competition, with a miserable 2-7 record against top eight rivals, and even those coming against an out-of-sorts Carlton and the eighth-placed Giants. Sydney would have to win four finals in a row on the road to win the premiership, and at least three of those at the MCG, where they have lost all three appearances this season, and their last four games including last year’s grand final belting. Not a single premiership side over the last two decades hasn’t tanked at least top four for either offence or defence, and in 2023, the Swans are just seventh for points scored and eighth for fewest points conceded.

This article first appeared at ESPN.