Melbourne’s Steven May confronts Brisbane’s Dayne Zorko after the Demons’ fiery clash with the Lions in Round 23. Image: Channel Seven.

SECOND SEMI-FINAL
MELBOURNE v BRISBANE (MCG, Friday 7.50pm local time)
The time for double chances has come and gone and we are now in sudden-death mode for the remainder of the season.

After the footy world was treated to one of the greatest rounds of finals football in VFL/AFL history last weekend, the semi-finals have their work cut out to match the non-stop gripping drama which was produced in the first week.

But both games on paper have the potential to continue the epic nature of the 2022 finals series.

Even this game, despite the fact that Melbourne has owned Brisbane in recent times, winning their last four encounters by an average of 44 points.

The Demons find themselves playing in the second week after being stunned by the Swans in the second qualifying final.

And the Lions are here after bucking their recent finals trend and finishing on the right end of a September thriller for a change, beating Richmond by two points in the second elimination final.

Emotions are sure to still be raw too in the wake of the on-field war of words between Dayne Zorko and Harrison Petty two games ago, which boiled over and left Petty visibly distraught.

The Lions would be best advised to avoid trying out the fake bravado from Round 23 again, because it went over the top, they lost their concentration and Melbourne capitalised ruthlessly.

As previously stated, the Lions have been Melbourne’s bunnies of late, and their last two meetings in particular were stark reminders of that fact – a 64-point demolition in Round 15, and a 58-pont mauling eight weeks later.

It’s going to take a special effort from Brisbane to turn the tables, especially considering the Lions have not won at the MCG since 2014, having lost their last 11 games there. In fact, they’ve only won four of their last 31 games at the home of football.

It really has been slim pickings for Brisbane at this venue since its triple premiership dynasty teams ruled the league.

If the Lions are any chance of causing an upset, they will need an encore performance from star midfielder Lachie Neale, who was the difference last week against Richmond.

The 2020 Brownlow medallist played one of the best games of his career, amassing 39 disposals (21 contested) and 15 clearances, and using the ball with pinpoint accuracy. He also stayed out on the park for 100 per cent of game time in the second half when his team really needed him.

At the top of Melbourne’s priority list will be shutting Neale down, and luckily for the Demons, James Harmes avoided suspension for his crude hit on Sydney’s Jake Lloyd last week, because Harmes is the man for the job.

In their first meeting especially this year, Harmes not only negated the influence of Neale, restricting him to 22 touches (his third-lowest tally of the year), but was one of Melbourne’s best with two goals, 16 possessions and seven tackles of his own.

It would appear to be a no-brainer for Harmes to get the job again.

The Demons have named an unchanged line-up, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t had their fair share of injury concerns during the week, with key quartet Bayley Fritsch (knee), Charlie Spargo (throat), Jake Melksham (knee) and Christian Petracca, who sustained a fractured leg and a corked calf against the Swans, all nursing various issues.

But at the time of writing, all four players have been given the green light for this do-or-die encounter.

Brisbane regains Cam Rayner and Noah Answerth, while Darcy Fort comes in for Oscar McInerney (concussion).

The Lions like bombing the ball forward to their key targets Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Daniel McStay, but they cannot afford to fall into that trap again, because it will give Melbourne trio Steven May, Jake Lever and Petty easy pickings.

Michael Hibberd has done a phenomenal job on Charlie Cameron this year too, restricting the dangerous Brisbane small forward to zero goals in both matches.

It’s true that the Demons have looked more vulnerable down back this year than their premiership season of 2021, and the Swans showed how susceptible they are to sustained pressure and harassment.

However, in both meetings against Brisbane this year, Melbourne’s ball movement has not only been slick and fluent, but the persistent forward efficiency issues that have dogged the Demons in the second half of the season have also been non-existent.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 21 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 28 points.

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FIRST SEMI-FINAL
COLLINGWOOD v FREMANTLE (MCG, Saturday 7.25pm local time)
And this clash looms as an intriguing encounter as well.

The Magpies earned the reputation as the kings of the close ones during the home-and-away season, winning 11 of 12 games decided by 11 points or fewer, but they failed their first test in such a contest in the heat of the finals furnace, losing a seesawing classic to Geelong by six points.

Conversely, Fremantle produced one of the greatest comebacks in VFL/AFL finals history as it fought back from 41 points down to defeat the Western Bulldogs in the first elimination final at Optus Stadium.

Collingwood played in front of 90,000 fans last week, and incredibly could very well do so again this week, with the clash declared a sellout, which is a remarkable effort considering it is playing a non-Victorian team. The Dockers could very well be greeted by a similar reception to the one that GWS endured in the 2017 preliminary final against Richmond with the crowd set to be extremely one-sided.

On the surface, it would appear as though the Magpies are warm favourites. They’ve won 12 of their last 14 games, the vast majority of which by slender margins, and are playing in front of a packed home ground.

But the Dockers have become a very good travelling team this year, losing just two of 10 games on the road and claiming the scalps of Geelong, Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs, while also drawing with Richmond.

The loss of important midfielder Taylor Adams (groin) for Collingwood can’t be overstated enough, either, and his spot has been taken by youngster Trent Bianco.

Fremantle heads into this game without superstar captain Nat Fyfe, but the Dockers have coped magnificently without him this year, winning 12 of 16 matches when he hasn’t played.

And a main reason for that has been the rapid improvement of young guns Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong who are now star midfielders of the competition. They were pivotal again last week in their team’s sensational resurgence.

At their best, the Dockers are very hard to score against, thanks largely to their rock solid back six featuring the likes of Alex Pearce, Brennan Cox, Luke Ryan and Hayden Young.

And if their small forwards, such as Michael Walters, Michael Frederick and Sam Switkowski, can impact with their pressure again as they did last week, they’re a real show.

But Collingwood’s pressure against Geelong last week was absolutely brilliant. The Pies made life incredibly difficult for the minor premiers, and for large parts of the game, looked like they were headed for a preliminary final.

It took everything within the Cats’ make-up to pull that victory out of the fire which is a huge credit to Collingwood, and makes coach Craig McRae’s post-match frustration at how his players fell to the floor at the final siren understandable.

McRae was right, they might have lost the game, but they are far from losers.

If the Magpies go close to replicating that intensity and deprive Freo time and space with ball in hand, they will go a long way to winning.

The Dockers also look slightly vulnerable up forward, and with Collingwood star Darcy Moore fresh from his magnificent job on Tom Hawkins, coupled with Rising Star winner Nick Daicos’ cool and exquisite foot skills under pressure, the Pies should be too good.
RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 15 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Collingwood by 8 points.

RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 139
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 145