Adam Treloar is caught by Port Adelaide Darcy Byrne-Jones and Ryan Burton during the Dogs’ round 9 win. Photo: AFL MEDIA
SECOND PRELIMINARY FINAL
PORT ADELAIDE v WESTERN BULLDOGS (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7.10pm local time)
Just as the Bulldogs’ finals campaign started to bear an eerie resemblance to their famous run to the 2016 premiership, they’ve hit a huge snag at the worst possible time.
Not only have they lost livewire forward Cody Weightman due to concussion protocols, but they will have to take on Port Adelaide without their most important defender and one of their most important players, Alex Keath.
Keath has been in imperious form this year, having conceded multiple goals on just one occasion since round nine. His most recent dominant performance came just last week during the Dogs’ incredible one-point win over the Lions when he kept Joe Daniher quiet as a church mouse.
And the last time the Power and Dogs met back in round 23 (coincidentally when Melbourne and Geelong also did), Keath blanketed Charlie Dixon, keeping the big Port forward goalless.
Dixon’s record hasn’t been great in finals, with just five goals from four games, and he was held goalless again in the qualifying final against Geelong.
But with Keath out of the way, he has a real opportunity to turn that around, and it could spell danger for the Bulldogs. It’s going to be up to Zaine Cordy and/or Ryan Gardner to stop Dixon.
However, even if Dixon manages to just bring the ball to ground more often than not, the Dogs will have their work cut out for them again, because the Power’s small forward brigade in Robbie Gray, Connor Rozee, Orazio Fantasia, Zak Butters, Karl Amon and Steven Motlop are a lethal combination.
Taylor Duryea, Bailey Williams, Easton Wood, Bailey Dale and Caleb Daniel will be made to earn their pay for the Doggies.
Dogs coach Luke Beveridge has also bitten the bullet and selected ruckman Stefan Martin to play his first game since round 12, and just his second since round seven.
It’s a big gamble, but one Beveridge simply had to take, because Power ruckman Scott Lycett has been on fire recently and was one of the best on ground in round 23 against the undersized Lewis Young, who has been dropped.
It’s no wonder that the Power’s dynamic duo of Ollie Wines and Travis Boak were the two best players on the ground last time these two sides met. The mighty Bulldogs midfield unit has to be given a chance, and with Martin back, the likes of Bailey Smith, Jack Macrae and Marcus Bontempelli might just have a match-winning say on proceedings.
In an added bonus for the Dogs, Tim English proved himself to be more than an adequate back-up ruckman last week against the Lions with a good performance on Oscar McInerney after he dominated the first half.
The most likely target for Power tagger Willem Drew will again be Tom Liberatore, considering he kept the premiership Bulldog to just 17 touches and four clearances three weeks ago. But will the Dogs follow suit and employ their own negative role player in the middle? If so, Josh Dunkley would loom as the logical choice, and he might just shadow Wines for the majority of the evening, considering Dunkley did a good job on Darcy Parish in the second half of the elimination final against Essendon a couple of weeks ago.
The good news for the Bulldogs is that, despite copping a knee knock last week, captain Bontempelli looks fit and raring to go after getting through training strongly on Thursday.
And although Treloar did play well against the Bombers a fortnight ago, he was very poor against Brisbane last week, and seemed to really struggle with playing only 10 per cent of game time in the midfield. On more than one occasion, he looked like he was sulking, and that is simply unacceptable in a final. The Dogs can’t afford a repeat performance like that from Treloar in the September furnace.
The Bulldogs also have to put a lot of work into star Power defender Aliir Aliir, because if they decide to frequently kick it long and high into attack, they’re going to find it very hard to get past the All-Australian. And it’s going to be tempting to do with big-marking Aaron Naughton as a key target.
As good as Aliir has been this year, the Power’s defence is still quite underrated. Since round 13, they have conceded on average just 54 points per game. That’s quite outstanding.
They’ve been able to do that because their captain Tom Jonas hardly ever gets beaten, while Ryan Burton has also had a brilliant last couple of months.
This season, the Power haven’t lost a game when they’ve won the contested possession count and the Bulldogs are the third-ranked side in the league in that category. So, it promises to be a hot pill in the clinches.
But crucially, the Power have been at home for almost a month, while the Dogs have travelled from Melbourne to Tasmania to Brisbane to Perth and now to Adelaide.
Ken Hinkley’s men head into this game unchanged, they’re more settled and should be able to atone for their home preliminary final heartache they suffered against Richmond last year.
RONNY’S TIP: Port Adelaide by 16 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Western Bulldogs by 6 points.
PLEASE HELP US CONTINUE TO THRIVE BY BECOMING AN OFFICIAL FOOTYOLOGY PATRON. JUST CLICK THIS LINK.
FIRST PRELIMINARY FINAL
MELBOURNE v GEELONG (Optus Stadium, Friday 5.50pm local time)
It’s not every year you can say that the best four teams of the season end up in the preliminary finals.
But, even though the Bulldogs finished the home-and-away portion in fifth spot on the ladder, it’s fair to say that that’s exactly what we’ve got in season 2021.
After all, the Dogs did spend 20 consecutive weeks in the top four, as well as eight rounds on top of the ladder.
And what is widely regarded by the footy purists as the best weekend of footy of the year kicks off on Friday night with a mouth-watering blockbuster between minor premier Melbourne, and the experienced finals regular Geelong, which is desperate to make up for a decade of premiership near-misses.
It promises to be a spectacular rematch of their epic final-round showdown which saw the Demons fight back from 44 points down to snatch victory, and top spot on the ladder, after the siren thanks to a Max Gawn goal.
The stakes are even higher this time around with a spot in the grand final up for grabs.
Melbourne hasn’t qualified for a premiership decider in 21 years and is the owner of the longest active premiership drought (57 years). Meanwhile Geelong made it back to the big dance last year, but fell to Richmond, and with all the Cats’ chips in the middle of the table as a result of their strategy of recruiting older players, this feels like it’s their last roll of the dice (although, we seem to say that about them every year).
As with all contests, this titanic match-up will start in the middle of the ground and the ruck battle between Gawn and Geelong’s Rhys Stanley will be pivotal.
The last time they met in round 23, Stanley had the better of Gawn in the opening three quarters, but in the final term, Gawn got off the chain to help drag his Demons over the line with 11 disposals (four contested), three clearances, four marks, three inside 50s, eight hit-outs and that all-important goal. Who could forget the anguished look on Stanley’s face as his direct opponent took an uncontested mark 15m out from goal to win the game?
At the coalface, it has to be said that two of Geelong’s most reliable and decorated midfielders in Patrick Dangerfield and Joel Selwood have been down on form during this finals series. They are both going to have to wind back the clock and produce huge performances if the Cats are to score an upset win.
The problem for them is that Melbourne’s midfield looks to be too strong. Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca, in particular, are in sensational form, so much so that the Cats should consider putting some sort of tag on one of them – probably Oliver. It could be a job for Selwood, who did a reasonable job on Oliver three weeks ago, especially as the Cats’ usual tagger Mark O’Connor (hamstring) is out injured.
That’s not the only part of the ground where the Cats have concerns, because Melbourne’s backline, led by Steven May and Jake Lever, is also humming. The Dees have the best defence in the league, and to pick it apart, Geelong has to take them on, be aggressive, be bold, and deliver the ball with speed, rather than lob it up sluggishly and make life easy for May, Lever and Harrison Petty.
Geelong’s “three-headed monster” of Tom Hawkins, Jeremy Cameron and Gary Rohan has proven on more than one occasion this season that it can be devastating when used properly.
As good as Jack Henry has been, the Cats’ backline looks a bit vulnerable and could be brought undone by the forward pressure of Melbourne smalls Kysaiah Pickett, Charlie Spargo and Alex Neal-Bullen, who have been great at creating second chances at goal for their side all year.
The Demons have terrible memories of their last preliminary final at this ground in 2018, which was over at half-time when they were held goalless by West Coast in the opening two quarters.
But they are poised to erase that pain and emerge victorious from what looks to be the pick of the two preliminary finals.
RONNY’S TIP: Melbourne by 10 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Melbourne by 20 points.
RONNY’S SEASON TOTAL: 129
ROCO’S SEASON TOTAL: 130
