Tim Taranto wheels on to his right foot for Richmond against the Western Bulldogs last Saturday. Photo: AFL MEDIA

Few narratives in AFL football are as easy to construct and as seductive as that surrounding a once mighty team in freefall. The downside is how often they don’t actually play out that way.

It’s been going on for decades, probably at least since Hawthorn lost a second straight grand final to Essendon in 1985. Thrashed by 78 points and with seemingly nowhere left to turn, the Hawks were almost universally written off, yet somehow still managed to play in five of the next six grand finals and land another four premierships. Woops!

Geelong, of course, is the latter-day example, having been ritually dismissed as a potential flag team virtually every year between its ninth flag in 2011 and 10th last year, won whilst fielding the oldest side in football history.

So will the punditry learn from its previous errors? Or perhaps get it right next time? Well, we may be in a very good position to test supposition against reality again sooner than later not a year after the Cats seemed to have rewritten the rule book. And that’s thanks to Richmond’s less-than-convincing start to 2023.

The Tigers fit most of the parameters around this favourite footy story. They have the equal third-oldest list in the competition, with eight players aged 30 or older at the start of the season.

They’re just one win and a draw after four games, with tough assignments against Sydney and Melbourne over the next fortnight. And now they’re not only without spearhead Tom Lynch for the next couple of months with a broken foot, but No.1 ruckman Toby Nankervis for a minimum six weeks with an ankle injury.

In the modern football media climate of hotter than hot takes, you can almost hear the impending stampede arriving to pronounce a great Richmond era definitively at an end.

Me? As one who has stayed resolutely aboard the Tiger bandwagon even after missing finals in 2021, I’m still not ready to jump off. Why not? Because I suspect the line between success and failure for not just Richmond but a lot of other teams in 2023 may be finer than ever.

I reckon there’s a fair bit more grey around the Richmond position than the black-and-white you’d normally expect its win-loss record and ladder position to reflect.

You can start with the whole AFL ladder itself, which currently has St Kilda on top, a team widely expected pre-season to finish in the bottom third. Until Monday, meanwhile, the reigning premier, Geelong, was winless and on the bottom.

And now the Cats have broken their duck, every team has won at least one of its first four games, the first time that has been the case since 2006. Clearly we have a very even competition, which a lot of shaking out still to be done.

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And while Richmond has won just the one game, its form has been far from terrible. It pushed Carlton closer to defeat (via a draw) than any other opponent thus far. Its 32-point win over Adelaide, given the Crows’ improved standing, was actually more impressive in hindsight.

The Tigers conceded Collingwood a five-goal start then were within a breath of the Pies heading into time-on of the final quarter. And Saturday’s five-point loss to the Western Bulldogs obviously could have gone either way.

Most notably, while the Dogs controlled the bulk of the contest in terms of territory, it was Richmond which played the most explosive football of the afternoon, slamming on eight of the last nine goals of the first half to turn a five-goal deficit into a 14-point half-time lead.

That 15-minute burst was as powerful a period of football as any team has delivered thus far in 2023, epitomised by Richmond’s trademark frenetic ball movement, pressure and individual brilliance from the likes of Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton, who were each involved in five of Richmond’s second quarter scores, kicking three goals and assisting three more between them.

Much has been made since Saturday of the Tigers’ loss of the clearance statistic to the Bulldogs. But stoppage wins have never been an overly significant indicator for the Tigers, while the Dogs were a clear No.1 on that metric last season. And Richmond did beat the Bulldogs in both contested and uncontested possession.

They would be the bits from last Saturday coach Damien Hardwick did say he liked about the performance. And important enough evidence that the cause is far from hopeless just yet.

It’s also important to note that this version of Richmond is significantly different (and less experienced) than those which landed three premierships between 2017-20.

On Saturday, the Tigers played seven players – Samson Ryan, Tylar Young, Rhyan Mansell, Tyler Sonsie, Hugo Ralphsmith, Judson Clarke and Noah Cumberland – with 25 or fewer games under their belts. Some of those are coming along quickly.

And there’s two more in Maurice Rioli junior and Josh Gibcus – who also fit that category – who weren’t there against the Bulldogs, but in my view are both clearly now in Richmond’s best 22. Rioli, particularly, whilst he still doesn’t win enough of the ball, made a big difference to the levels of pressure applied by the Tigers’ forward set-up when he came into the mix last year.

While he was omitted last week, Rioli, I think like his team as a whole, isn’t that far away at all from significantly better results. It really is that fine a line this year.

Sure, Richmond’s upcoming games against Sydney and Melbourne are big. Lose both and one win from six would make even reaching the eight a tough task indeed. But even then, when it comes to the Tigers, I’d be pretty careful writing the year off, let alone an entire era.

This article first appeared at ESPN.