Adelaide veteran Taylor Walker attempts to break Hawthorn star Jai Newcombe’s tackle. Photos: AFL MEDIA
FIRST SEMI-FINAL
ADELAIDE v HAWTHORN (Adelaide Oval, Friday 7:10pm)
After two teams were eliminated last week, the finals series enters cut-throat mode from now on with just six sides left standing.
For the first 14 years of the current top-eight system, the second week of the finals was the refuge of the top-four sides with just two bowing out in straight sets in that period.
But since 2013, it’s been a very different story with 11 losing qualifying finalists suffering defeat the in the semi-finals to bow out of September in unceremonious circumstances.
Recent history suggests at least one of the Crows or Lions will suffer that same fate this year. But which one, if any, will it be?
If it’s Adelaide, it would create unwanted history by becoming the first minor premier since the introduction of the top eight in 1994 to make a straight-sets exit. Indeed, the last top team to do so was North Melbourne 42 years ago.
And as good as the Hawks were against GWS last week, it would be surprising to see the Crows fail to at least respond fiercely to their terrible performance against Collingwood in their qualifying final.
Adelaide has one of the most potent forward lines in the competition, yet was restricted to just 55 points, which was their third-lowest score of the season.
Granted, they came up against the Magpies’ No.1-ranked defence, but they’re not exactly contending with an incapable backline this week either.
Hawthorn’s defence was the third best during the home-and-away season, and their defenders were sensational in their 19-point elimination final win over the Giants.
Jarman Impey and Karl Amon provided superb drive, while Tom Barrass, Josh Battle, James Sicily and Blake Hardwick combined magnificently to blanket the Giants’ dangerous forwards.
And the Crows are coming off a similar performance to GWS as Collingwood’s backmen, specifically Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor, Brayden Maynard and Billy Frampton, completely dominated as the Pies took a total of 28 intercept marks.
If Adelaide is to win this week, it simply has to change the way it delivers the ball forward. The Crows weren’t bold enough against Collingwood and too timid to take the game on. Their slow movement gave the Magpies ample time to set up behind the ball and played right into their hands.
The Crows can’t afford to do that this week, otherwise they’ll suffer a similar result, because the likes of Battle, Barrass and Sicily are more than capable of going toe to toe with Riley Thilthorpe, Taylor Walker and Darcy Fogarty.
And Adelaide has a great defence in its own right, second only to Collingwood’s, but it fell into the trap of being pulled apart by the Magpies’ forwards, allowing avenues to goal to open up.
This week, it really has to be wary of the impact of Hawthorn’s dynamic small forwards Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan, Nick Watson and Connor Macdonald, in particular, because their pressure and zip around the loose ball could really cause trouble.
However, it would be shocking to see so many Adelaide players underperform again this week. The Crows had far too many passengers against the Magpies, with 13 players registering under 13 disposals. That’s just unacceptable for a top-ranked side.
And while the Hawks were, on the whole, very good last week, they had an alarming lapse in the third quarter when they got absolutely smashed by the GWS midfield in contested ball, clearances and inside 50s as their 42-point lead completely evaporated.
They cannot afford a similar extended drop-off in output in what will be a far more hostile environment than the one they experienced last week.
The Hawks return to the scene of the crime where their finals series last year came to a controversial end against Port Adelaide.
This match promises to be an absolute beauty too, but unfortunately for Hawthorn, it will probably end the same way it did 12 months ago.
RONNY’S TIP: Adelaide by 10 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Adelaide by 16 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Hawthorn by 7 points.
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SECOND SEMI-FINAL
BRISBANE v GOLD COAST (Gabba, Saturday 7:35pm)
After the Suns created history last week by winning the first final they ever played in, they set up the biggest match in the history of Queensland football.
The 30th Q-Clash between local rivals Brisbane and Gold Coast will be staged in a semi-final setting, and it’s a huge endorsement for how national the competition has become.
And didn’t the Suns have fun making sure of it? They must still be on cloud nine after travelling to Perth and pinching an absolutely thrilling elimination final by one point against Fremantle with club stalwart David Swallow kicking the winning behind to complete the fairytale.
But it’s fair to say they have bigger fish to fry this week in the form of the reigning premier. However, Brisbane is resembling the walking wounded at the moment, and there is more than a whiff of vulnerability about them.
Lions superstar midfielder Lachie Neale (calf) has joined Jack Payne (knee), Eric Hipwood (knee/calf), Noah Answerth (Achilles), Keidean Coleman (quad), Lincoln McCarthy (knee) and Tom Doedee (wrist) on the sidelines, while the Suns are basically full strength.
And one of the main reasons why Gold Coast was able to shock the Dockers at Optus Stadium was their ball movement.
The Suns were tougher for longer, they ran and carried the ball well and burnt Fremantle on the overlap many times on the counter.
Damien Hardwick’s team was also very clean in the contest, and perhaps the best example of that was Matt Rowell who was an absolute beast in the middle of the ground.
The former No.1 pick is built for finals football and produced a phenomenal performance that featured 34 disposals (12 contested), six tackles, 11 inside 50s, 10 score involvements and 638 metres gained.
Partner-in-crime Noah Anderson wasn’t exactly a slouch either with 32 touches (13), 11 score involvements, eight forward entries, six clearances and 753 metres gained.
The Brisbane engine room is going to have to pay very close attention to Rowell and Anderson, which means Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft, Zac Bailey and Hugh McCluggage, who played one of the worst games of his career against Geelong last week, are all going to have bring their A-games.
And while Suns key forward Ben King (69 goals) is an obvious source of focus for Brisbane’s decimated backline, Bailey Humphrey is certainly one to watch as well after his magnificent three-goal effort last week.
Humphrey is starting to be more than just a little reminiscent of Richmond legend Dustin Martin in the way he uses his powerful physique to impose himself on matches in attack, and someone like Brandon Starcevich might have to get the job on him.
Brisbane’s forward line was dysfunctional against the Cats last week. Logan Morris was uncharacteristically quiet and Sam Day has paid the price for his poor performance by being dropped, in favour of Oscar McInerney who can obviously also help out in the ruck.
Geelong took 20 intercept marks in the second qualifying final, which is simply not good enough from a Brisbane perspective.
With Charlie Cameron struggling, it might have to be up to the likes of Cam Rayner and Bailey to take on a more prominent role as crumbers/smalls in attack for Brisbane.
It might have occurred in controversial fashion, but Rayner certainly showed last week that he can have an impact with three goals.
The Suns are undoubtedly on a high and it feels like they’re heading into this game with a lot more freedom than the Lions who are staring down the barrel of a third straight-sets finals exit, which would be unprecedented in the 26 years of the current top-eight system.
But beware the wounded Lions, who have on so many occasions responded brilliantly to disappointing defeats.
RONNY’S TIP: Brisbane by 13 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 28 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Brisbane by 9 points.
SEASON TOTALS
ROCO 159
RONNY 152
ROCKET 147
*all times are local
