Geelong superstar Patrick Dangerfield is in hot pursuit of Hawthorn midfielder Jai Newcombe. Photos: AFL MEDIA

SECOND PRELIMINARY FINAL
GEELONG v HAWTHORN (MCG, Friday 7:40pm)
Preliminary final weekend is here and it’s arguably the best weekend of the AFL season.

We are down to the final four, and each team will be putting it all on the line in the hope of qualifying for a grand final and a shot at footy immortality.

The footy public is doubly blessed this season because two of the great modern rivalries will be taking centre stage in the second-most important weekend of the year.

First up, the Cats take on the Hawks and this fiery rivalry first ignited way back in 1989 as the two sides played out one of the greatest grand finals of all time.

After going into hibernation for a few decades, the fuse was relit in 2008 when Hawthorn pulled off a grand final upset for the ages by taking down Geelong, who had lost just the one game that year, and it’s been box office ever since, through the infamous Kennett Curse that lasted five years, and another four meetings in the finals.

Geelong heads into this game as favourite, after its sensational beatdown of Brisbane in their qualifying final, but both sides are settled, having not made any changes to their respective line-ups (although with the Cats, a late change can never be ruled out).

Geelong also enjoyed the week off, but that is offset by the fact that Hawthorn, just the second team to make a preliminary final from eighth, is charging towards this clash with a head full of steam after beating both GWS and Adelaide on the road in very impressive fashion.

The driving force behind the Hawks’ charge to the top four has been star midfielder Jai Newcombe who is the player of the finals series so far.

His brute strength and physicality sets the tone in the middle of the park, but his skill level has gone through the roof as well, and he is capable of bobbing up for a goal.

The question for Geelong is will Oisin Mullin get the job on Newcombe after the Irishman did such a sensational shutdown role on Brisbane prime mover Hugh McCluggage a fortnight ago? It would be surprising if he didn’t because Newcombe, on form, is the best on-baller in the league right now.

But Newcombe isn’t the only bloke doing the grunt work around the ball. His young teammate Josh Ward has been a revelation this year in that department, while the tackle king Tom Atkins gets the job done for his Cats, as does captain Patrick Dangerfield, who spent more time in the engine room against the Lions than usual.

The Hawks have also benefited greatly from the incredible resurgence of veteran forward Jack Gunston, who is playing like he’s 23 again and now has a career-high 70 goals to his credit. His tremendous form has continued unabated in September with bags of three and five in the opening two finals.

And while there were some concerns over him and Jack Ginnivan last week, as the pair sat out the majority of the final term against Adelaide, both have been named for this week’s game.

Hawthorn was able to take apart one of the best defences in the AFL last week, and will have to repeat the dose against a similarly outstanding backline this week.

Geelong’s defensive unit was brilliant against Brisbane and blanketed a very potent forward line. Their job was made easier by the fact that the Cats also applied such intense pressure further up the ground.

And arguably the two best small-forward groups in the league will be pitted against each other as Geelong’s Gryan Miers, Shaun Mannagh, Brad Close and Tyson Stengle will look to outdo Hawthorn’s Dylan Moore, Ginnivan, Nick Watson and Connor Macdonald. That’s going to be worth the admission price alone.

The Hawks love to play with dare, run and overlap on the counter, but Geelong is one of the best drilled and disciplined teams in the competition, so it would be a great achievement if Hawthorn was able to overwhelm the Cats that way.

One player that looms as the joker in the pack is the Hawks’ Mr Fix It Josh Weddle who can play pretty much any position impactfully. Might coach Sam Mitchell throw him on a wing head-to-head with Ollie Dempsey in a bid to curb the gun Cat’s influence? That would be a match-up to behold.

However, when all is said and done, it’s hard to tip against the Cats because not only was their last win against such a great team so impressive, but it was their seventh win a row, and their average winning margin over that stretch is 55 points. They’re going to take some beating.

RONNY’S TIP: Geelong by 13 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Geelong by 12 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Geelong by 7 points.

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FIRST PRELIMINARY FINAL
COLLINGWOOD v BRISBANE (MCG, Saturday 5:15pm)
The second grand final spot will be taken by either the Magpies or Lions, and these teams also have a storied recent history that has seen them face off in three grand finals.

And, of course, this is a contest between the last two premiers, so only one team will emerge from Saturday with its dream of two flags in three years still intact. If the Lions are victorious, they’ll be gunning for back-to-back premierships.

The head-to-head between the two teams this year couldn’t be more erratic. In their first meeting, Collingwood smashed the Lions up at the Gabba, but Brisbane returned the favour at the MCG the second time around six weeks ago.

That last result was part of a broader late-season slump experienced by the Magpies, but fortunately for them, they appeared to well and truly arrest it with their sensational win over the Crows in Adelaide in the first qualifying final.

And the simple lesson learned from that game for the Lions is that they must go hard at Collingwood’s backline with aggressive ball movement like they did in Round 21. It yielded multiple good looks at goal and Logan Morris was the main beneficiary, booting six majors.

The Crows were too timid and their slow ball movement played right into the Magpies’ hands as it gave their backline ample time to set up behind the ball, allowing the likes of Darcy Moore, Isaac Quaynor, Brayden Maynard and Billy Frampton to dominate as Collingwood took a total of 28 intercept marks.

Attacking the Magpies’ backline with full force like Brisbane did is no doubt a high-risk/high-reward strategy, because if it doesn’t work, Collingwood, with the No.1 defence in the AFL, is more than capable of making the Lions pay. However, Brisbane will back itself in given it has no qualms going for its audacious passes by foot, especially into the corridor.

And the other thing seemingly in Collingwood’s favour is that, unlike last time, both Jeremy Howe and Frampton will feature down back. But even though Howe is so important to the Magpies’ line-up, there will be a few queries over him given the injury-hit veteran hasn’t played a full game since Round 16.

As good as Collingwood’s defence is, Brisbane’s isn’t too shabby either, and the centrepiece of its backline is inspirational co-captain Harris Andrews who did an absolute number on red-hot Suns forward Ben King last week.

Andrews dominated the airways and his ability to read the play is almost second to none. Magpies coach Craig McRae will probably enlist big American Mason Cox to go to Andrews, get in the star Lion’s way and disrupt his rhythm.

After getting spanked by Geelong a couple of weeks ago, the Lions dusted themselves off commendably in their semi-final against Gold Coast and rediscovered their hunger and pressure. They hunted the Suns, and were also able to get numbers back and slingshot the Suns on the counter, while their relentless vigour saw them break Gold Coast tackles frequently.

Something that the Magpies will have to weigh up is whether they will send someone to McCluggage.

Collingwood doesn’t usually employ a tagger or a negating midfielder, but McCluggage’s first two finals have been chalk and cheese and that’s because in the qualifying final, the Cats deployed Mullin to him with tremendous effect.

However, one thing that is almost certain is that the Lions will give Josh Dunkley another shutdown role after his magnificent performance on Gold Coast’s Matt Rowell last week which saw him register a finals record 17 tackles.

Dunkley’s ability to put the brakes on his direct opponent is elite and it would not surprise to see him go to either Nick Daicos or Jordan De Goey, or even spend a bit of time on both key Magpies.

Daicos is arguably the best player in the league now and, again, looms as the key player behind potential Collingwood success on Saturday. However, another superstar father-son in Will Ashcroft isn’t too far behind Daicos, and has quickly become one of Brisbane’s most important players. He too will have a big say on proceedings after his phenomenal outing against the Suns last week.

Seeing Daicos and Ashcroft on the same field in a final for the first time, after the latter missed the 2023 grand final due to a knee injury, is going to be a sight for sore eyes.

The Lions don’t fear the MCG anymore, having won six of their last eight there, but they’re probably missing too many key players with Lachie Neale (calf), Eric Hipwood (knee), Jack Payne (knee) and Noah Answerth (Achilles) all sidelined.

RONNY’S TIP: Collingwood by 6 points.
ROCO’S TIP: Brisbane by 2 points.
ROCKET’S TIP: Brisbane by 11 points.

SEASON TOTALS
ROCO 160
RONNY 153
ROCKET 149

*all times are local