Brisbane will need star forward Jesse Wardlaw to fire in their quest to beat Melbourne. Photo: AFL MEDIA
All kinds of strange finals permutations and combinations are at hand in the competition’s final home-and-away round. Math nerds, rejoice!
With every member of the top six squaring off against each other, it’s possible five of the six clubs could end up with 7-2 win-loss records, with percentage determining the finals pecking order. So winning isn’t the only thing — it’s winning by as much as a side possibly can. Any draw in any match would really throw a spanner in the works.
Simply, here’s what’s at stake: A top-two position equals a week off and a home preliminary final. Finishing anywhere from third to sixth means playing a cut-throat elimination final next weekend, with third and fourth earning a home match. Not surprisingly, two of the top three teams, Brisbane and Adelaide, have each played in two of the league’s three grand finals. Prepare for an intense and unpredictable round, in which finalists’ fates hang on a razor’s edge.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v RICHMOND (Friday 5.10 pm, Whitten Oval)
The Tigers easily are the best of the developing sides and outside of finalist, Melbourne, are the most improved club in the comp from the start of the season. Skipper Katie Brennan has rediscovered her accuracy in front of the sticks, Courtney Wakefield has become one of the comp’s best contested marks, and Tayla Stahl applied forward pressure last round like a wrecking ball in Richmond’s win. Monique Conti has been a gun all year, with only Collingwood’s Britt Bonnici averaging more touches per match than her 23.7. The Doggies have been on a massive downslide, losing three straight after a hot 4-1 start. The Crows last week sent the Doggies back to their kennel after a humiliating belting. While Richmond has been roaring, the Doggies haven’t kicked more than three goals in a match since Round 5. Look for Richmond to get the chocolates here and build serious confidence and momentum for 2022.
GIL TIPS: Richmond
NORTH MELBOURNE v FREMANTLE (Saturday 1.10 pm, Arden Street)
The Dockers dodged a bullet this week while the Kangaroos must bite one. Fremantle’s — and perhaps the comp’s — best player, midfielder Kiara Bowers avoided a one-match suspension with a successful appeal of a dangerous tackle charge in her side’s loss last week against Melbourne. But North will be without its own star mid, Jenna Bruton, who might’ve been its best on ground last week in its loss to Brisbane. Bruton led all players in both possessions (26) and marks (seven), but the MRO rubbed her out this week by ruling one of her two tackles to be dangerous. Fremantle last week learned the hard way it can’t start slow, then suddenly turn its intensity on late, and expect to win. The Dockers have gone goalless in the first term in six of eight matches, while the Roos are hardly strangers to inaccurate goalkicking, booting scores of 2.8 last week against Brisbane and 0.8 in an earlier showdown against Collingwood. North has the home ground advantage, more midfield depth, and a decided edge in the ruck. Unless Freo bucks the trend of sluggish starts, North could make it a long afternoon for the Dockers.
GIL TIPS: North Melbourne
MELBOURNE v BRISBANE (Saturday 3.10 pm, Casey Fields)
If any club has earned the right to walk with a little swagger these last two rounds, it’s the Dees. Two weeks ago, Melbourne belted the big, bad Crows, and last week they traveled across the Nullarbor to upset Fremantle. Not only have the Dees won three on the trot, but they’re yet to lose a match at home this season. Up forward, the Dees’ Kate Hore has been a terror on opponents, kicking five goals in the last two rounds while Karen Paxman, with her average 23 touches per game, has been a force all season through the middle. Brisbane, though, has consistently beaten other top-six sides. With stars like Dakota Davidson, Jesse Wardlaw and Courtney Hodder, the Lions possess one of the comp’s most dangerous forward lines, so the Dees will have to clamp down on them to be a chance. Even if the Dees win, it’s unlikely they could pass Brisbane or Collingwood on the ladder and earn a top-two spot, but climbing any rung at all from fifth position would help their flag chances. Melbourne’s fortress and their recent form may be too much for even the ladder-leading Lions.
GIL TIPS: Melbourne
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GOLD COAST v GEELONG (Saturday 5.10 pm, Metricon Stadium)
Only the footy goddesses’ cruelty could cause a draw between these clubs this weekend to render them both winless for the season. Surely the deities couldn’t engineer something so devious, could they? Don’t put it past them. Only 2.5 percentage points separate the Suns from the bottom-dwelling Cats. While Geelong has scored the comp’s least amount of points (123), Gold Coast has conceded the most (441). No matter who wins here, it’s back to the proverbial drawing board for 2022. Only the Suns’ experience and home ground advantage make them the favourite to avoid being this year’s wooden spooners.
GIL TIPS: Gold Coast
ADELAIDE v COLLINGWOOD (Sunday 12:10 pm, Norwood Oval)
The two-time premiership Crows may be peaking at just exactly the right time. They’ve won two of their last three matches and in those two wins, their average margin of victory has been 56 points. Adelaide looks every bit the powerhouse it once was and boasts an embarrassment of riches as far as depth goes. Now, top spot is clearly within the Crows’ sights, as they’re just one win and eight percentage points away from that perch. While Adelaide, with its league-best 415 points, can unleash a murderous attack, the Magpies have conceded a league-lowest 159 points. The Crows last week had a multitude of goalkickers, with Chloe Scheer, Ashleigh Woodland, and Caitlin Gould kicking at least two majors, while the Pies’ twin towers Stacey Livingstone and Ruby Schleicher have been pillars in defence. Both clubs boast excellent midfields, but the Crows have the edge in tackles — which will be crucial in trying to break up the Pies’ handball game. Adelaide has home ground advantage and appears ravenous. Don’t be surprised if after this match the Crows are again looking down at the rest of the competition from the top of the ladder to firm as premiership favourites.
GIL TIPS: Adelaide
GWS v CARLTON (Sunday 4.10 pm, Blacktown)
If any club this year has played like an ‘80s Aussie classic rock song, it’s the Blues. They’ve been the living embodiment of Men At Work’s “Dr Heckyll and Mr Jive” — unbeatable one round, vulnerable the next. Which Blues side will show up this weekend? The one which could possibly sneak into the top six with a big enough victory over the Giants, combined with North Melbourne suffering a big loss to Fremantle? When Wonder Woman — er, Carlton’s Darcy Vescio — takes hold of a match, she does things few mortals can. Her five goals last week aside, Vescio operates at a level of instinct few of her peers can approach. If Vescio’s not winning the ball and scoring herself, she’s setting things up for her teammates and making them all better. The Giants have the comp’s fifth-lowest percentage, while the Blues showed last week in a record-setting rout of Gold Coast, they can score at will. This match smells like Carlton laying the smack down. Impending smashing.
GIL TIPS: Carlton
WEST COAST v ST KILDA (Sunday 6:10 pm, Mineral Resources Park)
The second-year Eagles have been getting progressively better, despite being wracked by injuries and suspensions. Dana Hooker’s season ended early from injury and the MRO banned captain Emma Swanson from last round and this one for a bump on an opponent. But last weekend, the Eagles nearly snatched a win on the road from the more experienced Tigers. Mikayla Bowen is a budding superstar, and Imhara Cameron and the Kelly sisters — Niamh and Grace — are always dangerous in attack. The Saints have lost four straight and have trouble getting the ball into their own forward 50, much less scoring. The Eagles should win here and give their home fans some hope for a bigger 2022.
GIL TIPS: West Coast
