Melbourne’s Kate Hore gets a handball away during the Demons’ last meeting with Adelaide in Round 7. Photo: GETTY IMAGES
The league’s fearsome foursome are set to square off, with the chance to host a home grand final on the line. The challengers — Melbourne and Collingwood — are operating on adrenaline. Last week, the Magpies surged from behind to win its first ever AFLW home final, while Melbourne used the prevailing winds of its home ground and its hardness to grind out a win. The fancies — Adelaide and Brisbane — have often been in this position before. Those clubs, which finished first and second on the ladder, respectively, would like nothing more than to have a rematch of their inaugural grand final back in 2017. For the Dees and Pies, what more would they want than a premiership showdown at the MCG? Two cracking prelims will decide the foursome’s fate.
ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE, Saturday 1.40 pm
The Demons have been on fire since Round 6, terrorising any and all opposition to run off a string of five straight wins, while the Crows pipped the Lions and Magpies at the end of the home-and-away season to clinch the ladder’s top rung. Melbourne made a powerful statement in that round against the Crows on a rainy night at Casey Fields, belting them both physically and on the scoreboard with a 28-point hiding. Inspirational Dees skipper Daisy Pearce, who sat out last week’s elimination final defeat of the Dockers with a medial collateral ligament injury to her right knee will have to pass a fitness test to play in this match. If Pearce can do that, that certainly would be an even bigger lift for Melbourne, which will need to resurrect every ounce of the courage it showed in its earlier meeting with Adelaide. The Crows played as if they didn’t know what hit them, with the Dees going harder at the ball than they had all season and applying forward pressure on Crows defenders like a vice grip, beating them at their own game. Melbourne that night won 23 more contested possessions and laid a dozen more tackles, including Shelley Scott’s game-high 10 and stalwart Karen Paxman’s nine. The Dees’ Kate Hore took care of the scoreboard, kicking a bag of three goals. The Crows, though, seem to be peaking at just the right time, boast the comp’s deepest list and easily led the comp in scoring courtesy of their multiple avenues to goal. The home ground advantage, the chance at revenge, and the hunger to be back in the frame for a third premiership is what’s driving Adelaide’s foundational stars Erin Phillips, Chelsea Randall, Stevie-Lee Thompson and Ebony Marinoff. Expect another physical match, with the Crows trying to intimidate early, through midfield star Anne Hatchard and tackling sister act Hannah Button and Rachelle Martin. Lily Mithen, Maddi Gay and Eden Zanker will counter for the Dees, and if ruck Lauren Pearce can transform into another ball-winning mid as she has shown she can, it improves the Dees’ odds. Melbourne has been red hot and it will be brave on the road, but with a third flag within their grasp, the Crows can smell blood and will punch their ticket to another grand final.
GIL TIPS: ADELAIDE
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BRISBANE v COLLINGWOOD, Saturday 4.10 pm
These two sides last met in Round 7, when the Lions were forced to fly to Victoria the morning of the match because of new COVID-19 restrictions in Queensland, instead of hosting the contest on their home deck. But despite the impromptu switch, it was Collingwood on the back foot at Whitten Oval, not Brisbane, as the Lions hung on by a nose to win a two-point nailbiter. The most important match-ups to watch Saturday will involve four All-Australian nominees. The marquee one will involve two mids: the Lions’ Cathay Svarc against the Pies’ Brianna Davey. Svarc handcuffed Davey, the comp’s leading ball-winner (23.9 touches per match), limiting her to a season-low 14. The other pits Collingwood’s elite tall defender Stacey Livingstone against prolific, Brisbane goal-kicking forward Dakota Davidson. In Round 7, Davidson — whose 13 majors place her within the comp’s top five — was limited to one behind. The Pies bat deeper through the middle than maybe any other side, so Britt Bonnici and Jaimee Lambert can pick up the slack if Davey’s influence is again constricted. The Lions have one of the league’s most potent forward lines, so if Davidson draws most of the defensive attention, Jesse Wardlaw can be equally dangerous. In their mid-March showdown, Brisbane peppered the goals the entire match, but kicked a paltry 4.11, while Collingwood’s accuracy was only marginally better, with 4.8 and missed two late shots that could’ve won the match. As with the earlier battle, a close match may all come down to supply to the small forwards and who can make the most of the opportunities. Collingwood’s mercurial Chloe Molloy touched the ball just five times last time, while firing just one shot on goal for a minor score as Brisbane’s deadly Courtney Hodder kicked a goal and a behind from the same number of disposals. The Lions may not have Collingwood’s big name mids, but the Pies must shut down Brisbane’s Sophie Conway and Alexandra Anderson, who collected a match-high 26 disposals and took a goal-saving intercept mark down back when the two sides last met. Brisbane will be fresher, having had a bye week, is on its home deck, and has more finals experience. Odds favour the Lions in a close one.
GIL TIPS: BRISBANE
