Brisbane Lions coach Chris Fagan has an enormous task ahead of himself to drag his team back up the ladder. IMAGE: AFL MEDIA.
The alarm bells are ringing loud and clear for the Brisbane Lions after falling to an upset loss to Hawthorn at Marvel Stadium on Sunday.
After Brisbane gathered some decent momentum following their terrible 2-5 start to the season, the young Hawks put the brakes on them to abruptly end their three-game unbeaten run.
The result means the Lions finds themselves two-and-a-half games outside the top eight in 13th spot nearing the halfway mark of the season.
It’s been a dramatic fall from grace for the team that was a kick away from a premiership last year.
The seriousness of the situation wasn’t lost on coach Chris Fagan who admitted post-game the Lions’ season was “hanging well and truly in the balance”.
But in all likelihood, Brisbane’s 2024 campaign is already cooked.
Fagan maintained a positive attitude and backed his charges to rein in the huge 10-point gap that now separates them and the top eight.
He cited the remarkable in-season transformations undertaken by Carlton and GWS as recently as last year as inspiration for his players.
And Fagan has a point in that the competition probably has never been tighter, but the reality is that Brisbane is going to have to perform an even more incredible trick than what the Blues and Giants produced last season to make the finals.
In 2023, after Round 12, GWS was in the bottom four and two wins outside the top eight, and a week later Carlton was in a similar boat to what the Lions are in now, 10 points adrift in the bottom four.
Both the Giants and Blues then went on incredible runs to make it all the way to the preliminary final weekend, where they lost to Collingwood and Brisbane respectively.
Sydney left it even later to make their run, lifting themselves out of the bottom four in Round 17 to close a two-game gap and qualify for the finals, before being bundled out in the first week by the Blues.
The difference is, though, that Carlton and GWS completely transformed themselves and played a more hard-running, direct, high-pressure brand of football which few teams were able to cope with.
It was almost as if they flicked the kind of switch that the Lions simply do not possess at present.
It’s hard to see Brisbane undergoing a similar metamorphosis.
Using Sunday as an example, their pressure and intensity was way off the mark for far too long and played right into the hands of the hungrier Hawks.
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By the time Brisbane had turned things around and almost completely wiped out their six-goal deficit, they were spent and Hawthorn kicked away again.
The Lions were also let down by their senior players with the likes of Joe Daniher, Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey, Cam Rayner, Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko and Conor McKenna struggling to have an impact.
But, yet again, goalkicking accuracy was a huge issue. Their forward struggles against the Hawks were a microcosm of their season so far. For the eighth time this year, Brisbane failed to kicked more goals than points.
After getting such tremendous output from Daniher (61.37 at 62 per cent), Cameron (59.27 at 69 per cent), Eric Hipwood (41.29 at 59 per cent) and Lincoln McCarthy (28.11 at 72 per cent), those same players have misfired badly this year.
In 2024, Daniher (20.21 at 49 per cent), Cameron (18.16 at 53 per cent), Hipwood (11.10 at 52 per cent) and McCarthy (8.9 at 47 per cent) have all suffered spectacular drop-offs in goalkicking efficiency from last season, and it shows in Brisbane’s 4-6-1 record.
Adding insult to injury is the fact that McCarthy is out for the season with a ruptured ACL, and the former Cat is only part of a stunning epidemic of serious knee injuries to befall the side.
Keidean Coleman, Tom Doedee and Darcy Gardiner are also gone for the year, while Brandon Starcevich (calf) remains at least a fortnight away and Will Ashcroft (knee) is probably still six weeks off availability.
Those are all key players, and it will only make the Lions’ task of pulling off a Carlton or GWS even more difficult.
The loss of Coleman in Round 1 was a killer. After a sensational finals series last year, the dashing defender’s trajectory was upwards with a bullet and it wouldn’t have surprised if he found himself in All-Australian contention had he had a full season this year.
But Coleman has taken with him valuable run off half-back, and Brisbane has really struggled to generate meaningful dash from that part of the ground in his absence, despite its best efforts to plug the hole with veteran Zorko.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom for Brisbane. Through adversity it has given opportunities to some of their younger players, and Lions supporters should be thrilled with what they’ve been seeing from Kai Lohmann, Bruce Reville and Logan Morris.
If the Lions miss out on the finals this year, they will at least take solace from the fact that they’ll head into 2025 with some added depth.
