Caleb Poulter is congratulated by teammates after kicking a goal against Carlton in Round 18 at Marvel Stadium. PHOTOS: GETTY IMAGES.
In a premiership race as wide open as the VFL/AFL has ever seen, every little advantage, whether perceived or otherwise, could be the difference between premiership glory and crushing disappointment.
It’s not even about the one percenters this year, it’s about the half-percenters, even the quarter-percenters, so tight is the competition.
With only three rounds to go, just two games still separate first and eighth, as well as third and 11th. Yes. It’s that crazy.
And as we’ve seen throughout the year, every team that is still in the finals race has endured both deflating form slumps and exhilarating runs of fabulous football. The swings and roundabouts have been as dramatic as they’ve ever been and whoever happens to be at the positive end of the form spectrum in September will go a long way to lifting the cup aloft this year.
With the margin for error so infinitesimally small, the line between jubilation and despair as fine as it’s ever been, psychology is undoubtedly playing a huge role in the run to the flag, and it perhaps goes some way to explaining why Carlton is heading south a rate of knots and the Western Bulldogs are going in the other direction at a similar speed.
Of all the teams that still have their finals flames still flickering, plucking the Blues and Dogs out from the pack for a comparison is not a random exercise. There’s a reason for their selection to be placed under the microscope.
Something very subtle occurred recently, but it spoke volumes about how important it is for everything to be in order for top-eight contenders, especially from a mental standpoint.
Heading into Carlton’s Friday night match against Port Adelaide in Round 20, much was made of the fact that the Blues were coming off a five-day break, having played North Melbourne on the Sunday evening prior.
It ended up becoming such a big talking point during that week, that it wouldn’t surprise if it ended up being lodged in the playing group’s collective subconscious.
Carlton coach Michael Voss tried to get out in front of the topic, saying that the five-day break would not be used as an excuse against the Power, but the horse had bolted.
“We understand the draw doesn’t line up exactly how you want it, but we do look forward to playing in really big games,” Voss said at the time.
It seemed like an odd storyline for the match, especially as the previous time Carlton were coming off a five-day break in Round 12 (coincidentally against the Power as well), they pumped Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval by six goals.
Granted, the Power were also coming off a five-day break on that occasion, but for their second meeting this year, Ken Hinkley’s men had just six days to prepare, it wasn’t as if they were enjoying a seven- or eight-day lead-in time.
And after jumping out a 31-point lead, the Blues ground to a complete halt as they were overrun by the fast-finishing Power.
In the post-match, when asked again if he thought the five-day break was a contributing factor, Voss changed his tune.
“It has to be a little bit,” Voss said.
“I could sit here and say it’s not a factor but the reality is it has something to do with it.”
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The Blues have now lost four of their last five games and after sitting pretty in second spot, are now clinging to a place in the top eight by the skin of their teeth.
Is this messaging that is coming from the senior coach the main reason for Carlton’s dramatic and poorly-timed loss of form? Of course not. There are many factors that have gone into it, not least of which has been the diminished output of their star-studded midfield (despite how good they looked in the late charge against Collingwood on Saturday night).
But there’s no doubt that Voss’ comments on some level would give his players some sort of out. An excuse that justifies a defeat when the going gets tough.
Now compare that to the Bulldogs, who faced an even more difficult scenario this week.
After smashing the Swans up in Sydney last Sunday, unlike Carlton who stayed in Melbourne, the Dogs had to fly back home and prepare for a meeting with Melbourne at Marvel Stadium five days later on the Friday night.
Compounding matters for the Bulldogs was the fact that their flight out of Sydney was delayed due to high winds, which meant most of the team probably didn’t get to bed until 1am that night.
But you wouldn’t have known it based on coach Luke Beveridge’s comments a few days prior to the meeting with the Demons.
“I think we’re pretty right,” he said.
“Everyone’s just got to face up to the fact that there’s fives (five-day breaks) and occasionally you get longer ones – sometimes the longer ones are even more difficult.”
The end result? The Bulldogs pumped Melbourne by 51 points, and probably should’ve won by 100 considering they had 35 scoring shots to 14.
After the game, Beveridge said he didn’t bring up the shorter-than-usual turnaround with his players.
“Their powers of recovery and their commitment tonight on a five-day break – we never even talked about it,” he said.
“So it’s a real credit to them to play the way that the boys did and then to finish the game off the way that they did under what was a pretty trying week.”
Again, is that mindset the main driver behind the Bulldogs’ incredible form turnaround that has seen them win nine of their last 12 games, including the scalps of premiership contenders Sydney, Geelong, GWS, Fremantle and Carlton, to become one of the hottest teams in the league and a flag threat themselves?
Of course not. But it would be impossible to discount that mental toughness that clearly exists within the team, which has been developed and nurtured over time, from the equation which has the seventh-placed Dogs playing absolutely scintillating footy.
Every little bit helps and in the area where the Blues might’ve slipped up a little bit, the Bulldogs are seemingly right on point, and while there is still a long way to go in this crazy season yet, and it would be foolhardy to make any bold predictions at this juncture, it could end up being one of the reasons why the Dogs cause some serious damage this September and the Blues may struggle to have a significant impact.
