The Magpies are a shadow of the team that took all before them in the opening 17 rounds of the season. Picture: AFL MEDIA
Collingwood is in serious trouble.
Its issues have become so alarming that they may not be able to be corrected adequately in time for the finals.
And there’s still a slight possibility that the Magpies miss out on the top eight altogether, which is quite remarkable.
If they lose against the ladder-leading Crows in Adelaide this week, they’ll almost certainly drop to sixth, and from there it would be incredibly hard for them to regain a spot in the top four, assuming they defeat Melbourne in the final round.
No top four means no double chance, and the way they’re travelling at the moment, it would take a minor miracle for them to win four finals in a row in order to clinch the premiership.
When one considers that their four losses from their past five games have all been against top-eight teams, the enormity of the Magpies’ task of running the September gauntlet from the bottom half of the eight becomes even more apparent.
After winning 14 of their first 16 games, sitting on top of the ladder for 13 weeks and being installed premiership favourites for the vast majority of the year, Collingwood is experiencing its worst form slump at the most inopportune time of the season.
Five weeks ago, having just won eight consecutive matches, the Magpies were the most well-drilled team in the competition.
They boasted the best defence in the competition and were ranked first for scores from turnover and goals per inside 50 against, while also being No.2 for goals per inside 50 and having the fifth-best attack in the league.
But in the past five rounds, the Magpies have nosedived. In that period they are fourth-last for goals per inside 50, 14th for goals per inside 50 against, 11th for scores from turnover and they also have the No.12 overall attack and 10th-ranked defence.
That is a massive drop off in key areas and it’s a result of a dramatic breakdown in their famed system.
Collingwood used to punish teams off turnover, score efficiently and their all-ground defence was the envy of the league.
But their uncompromising effort has evaporated, their midfielders, in particular, don’t look like they have the energy required to defend at an elite level and multiple senior players are making regular basic skill errors.
Collingwood memorably went all in on experience in the off-season to the point that they headed into 2025 with the oldest list on record. In fact, this year alone they have fielded the top 10 oldest teams in VFL/AFL history, smashing the record set by Geelong in the 2022 grand final.
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For three-quarters of the season, it was their biggest strength, but in the most important part of the year, it’s looking increasingly like their biggest weakness.
For four months, every Collingwood player knew exactly what his role was on the field, within a grand structure, and played that role meticulously for the greater good, yielding stunning results.
But all of a sudden, the Magpies are looking like their age, especially in their last six quarters from half-time against the Brisbane Lions to the final siren against Hawthorn.
Over that period, Collingwood has been smashed in disposals 622-489, contested possessions 205-165, clearances 65-44 and inside 50s 77-61.
Heading into the Hawthorn game, the Magpies were averaging 67 tackles a game, yet could only muster 42.
Collingwood had conceded only nine marks inside 50 on average, yet Hawthorn already had 10 in the second quarter and finished up winning the stat convincingly 18-9. The Hawks also kicked 7.0 from just 12 inside 50s in the decisive second term.
Quite frankly, their midfield has been taught a lesson by hungrier, quicker, faster and younger on-ball divisions, while their backline has become an absolute mess with the likes of Darcy Moore, Billy Frampton, Dan Houston and Charlie Dean all looking lost without Jeremy Howe back there.
And with Howe to miss at least the next match due to concussion, the Magpies’ chances of beating Adelaide, which possesses one of the most formidable forward lines in the AFL, featuring the likes of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty, Izak Rankine and Taylor Walker, don’t look very good at all.
Nathan Murphy’s unfortunate early retirement due to concussion has been disastrous for Collingwood.
The engine room, which features Scott Pendlebury, Steele Sidebottom, Ned Long and more recently Tom Mitchell, had been so damaging for so long, but now looks one-paced, slow and stagnant.
After the 64-point loss to Hawthorn, coach Craig McRae was adamant the issues in their system were fixable, but worryingly for the Magpies, what cannot be fixed is energy and vigour, and the ageing Magpies look like they’ve run out of petrol tickets for the season.
While Collingwood shouldn’t be ruled out completely of premiership calculations, and it’s true that this week they should get back Beau McCreery and Bobby Hill, who are both critical players when it comes to the pressure side of their game, a flag that looked like it would be the Magpies’ to lose for so long, now appears as far away as it’s been since GWS smashed them in Round 0.
