Melbourne’s Lily Johnson is jubilant after the Demons upset Adelaide in a thriller last week. Photo: AFL MEDIA
If the current AFLW ladder were expressed as a numeric formula, it would frustrate even the most accomplished mathematicians.
Try crunching the following numbers. Three more weeks of home-and-away matches remain. Three “usual suspect” clubs — reigning premier Brisbane, unbeaten North Melbourne and perennial flag threat Adelaide — are most likely to firm their spots in the top four and gain the coveted finals double chance.
But third-year club Hawthorn, which has previously finished 15th and 14th, looks set to crash the top four party. The Hawks have come from the clouds and stormed to a 7-1 record. They’re second on the ladder thanks to a second-best 467 points scored, and can finish no worse than 7-4.
Richmond is fifth on percentage, matching the Crows’ 6-2, but would need Adelaide to slip against one of either 13th-placed Geelong or 17th-placed Collingwood to leapfrog them into fourth spot.
But the most ferocious battles for the top eight begin this weekend, as a host of clubs positioned from fifth through to 11th square off, their win-loss records separated by a mere game.
Some pundits are calling this weekend’s Western Derby between West Coast and Fremantle the most important these two women’s sides have played — and with good reason.
Somehow, the Dockers sit sixth. This, despite their playing the entire season without injured captain Ange Stannett, recently-injured tall forward Aine Tighe, and club champion Kiara Bowers, who has stepped away this season to give birth.
Fremantle, which last Saturday lost a heartbreaker to Carlton, conceding the match-winning goal in the final minute, will face down the 10th-placed Eagles. West Coast, at four wins and four losses, has already won two more matches than in any previous season prior.
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Former Melbourne star Daisy Pearce has instilled a “can-do” spirit as the Eagles’ first-year senior coach, but her troops must move past the 66-point hiding they suffered days ago at the hands of the Hawks. And the Eagles are yet to win a derby.
Elsewhere, eighth-placed St Kilda — undoubtedly fatigued after playing two games in four days — hosts ninth-placed Port Adelaide on Friday night.
The Saints started the season brilliantly, winning their first three games, but have now dropped three of their past four. The Power’s trajectory, meanwhile, is almost the opposite, having won their past three games after dropping three in a row.
Speaking of clubs reversing fortunes, Melbourne, premier two years ago, is making its move. Despite sitting 11th and with a poor percentage which reflects being outscored by more than 100 points, the Demons’ finals hopes can’t be written off after three straight wins, including a stunning two-point upset of Adelaide.
It would be a huge ask, but can the Demons, now 4-4, shock fifth-placed Richmond? Who knows how the fickle, swirling winds may blow at Melbourne’s Casey Fields home, having caused plenty of headaches and heartbreaks for opposing clubs over the years.
But while the home-and-away season’s pointy end may continue to confound fans beyond this weekend, it will no doubt entertain them. There’s only one certainty as the matches play out: more unpredictability in the middle of the ladder that will separate flag contenders from the also-rans.
