Hawthorn defender Tilly Lucas-Rodd has been in career-best form. Photo: AFL MEDIA
It’s that time of year again. Winter officially has given way spring and half the AFLW season is now etched in the books. With that, all clubs’ and fans’ eyes are firmly fixated on two things: the run home and ladder positions — specifically, the fourth and eighth rungs.
But the balance of power this year has been shaken.
Only three of the four “usual suspects” atop the ladder – North Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide – remain genuine flag contenders. The fourth, Melbourne, endured an off-season exodus of stars, and has sunk to previously unknown depths.
The Demons have dropped four straight matches after winning their first and are 16th on the ladder. Barring a miracle, they’re out of the running for finals. Indeed, only injury-ravaged Collingwood, 17th, has worse percentage than Melbourne’s 47.9.
Not many experts believed it at the start of the campaign, but right now Hawthorn has the most realistic chance of replacing the Demons in the top four come finals time.
The Hawks smashed Carlton, Collingwood, and St Kilda in the early rounds, then outgunned Geelong last week by three goals, to boost their percentage to 170.5.
Eighteen-year-old Laura Stone booted three majors from just seven touches, and veteran Aine McDonagh added two to tie her for second on the goalkicking table with nine. With former Lions star Greta Bodey kicking eight this year for the Hawks, this is a team with a strong arsenal of firepower.
If you’re a Hawks supporter, you’d be salivating looking at the opposition in the last five rounds, bar a confrontation at season’s end against Richmond, another strong top four contender.
Four of Hawthorn’s next five opponents (Fremantle the exception) are bottom-dwellers Gold Coast, seventh-placed West Coast, 14th-placed Greater Western Sydney and Melbourne in 16th. A 26-point loss to powerhouse Adelaide is so far the only blemish on the Hawks’ ledger.
Hawthorn has over the last few off-seasons shrewdly poached recognisable talent from other contending clubs, that talent now providing valuable leadership. In addition to small forward Bodey, the Hawks also benefit up forward with the presence of former Kangaroo Kaitlyn Ashmore, and through the middle with another former Brisbane star Emily Bates.
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The Demons casting out of speedy Eliza West, whose 22.8 average disposals is among the league leaders, has fuelled the Hawks previous need for midfield pace. Defender Tilly Lucas-Rodd and ruck Lucy Wales have also been in career-best form.
Meanwhile, a few rungs down the ladder, with West Coast, St Kilda, and Essendon figuring to be the clubs fighting for eighth place, don’t be too shocked if the Eagles find their way to their first-ever finals berth.
While perennially inconsistent St Kilda dropped its last two matches to clubs lower on the ladder, and Essendon has also struggled to build momentum, don’t discount what some Eagles players are calling “the Daisy factor.” Their senor coach, Demons’ club legend Daisy Pearce, has her women riding a sense of self-belief, which has helped propel them to a 4-2 start.
West Coast sits seventh, but unlike past seasons, is not among the league’s lowest scoring teams and, as it demonstrated in rounds two and three, this club can string wins together. A probable Eagles home win over 10th-placed Port Adelaide this weekend, coupled with a highly likely loss by St Kilda (eighth) against the third-placed Crows would solidify the Eagles’ spot.
The big question for West Coast is: How will it stand up in two big tests in the two following rounds after this week?
The red-hot Hawks await the Eagles in round seven, and in round eight, for West Coast to significantly up their finals chances, they must do something they’ve never done in their existence — defeat arch-rival Fremantle in the Western Derby.
Midfielder Ella Roberts, at just 19, has arguably been the Eagles’ best so far, with fellow mid Alison Drennan, the former Sun, not far behind her.
By the time this season ends, there could be as many as five 2023 finalists — Melbourne, Gold Coast, Geelong, Essendon, and Sydney — which don’t make the cut this year. And potential first-time finalists Hawthorn and West Coast could possibly be joined in the top eight by Richmond, St Kilda, and Fremantle, all of whom missed out last year.
Sometimes a little shake-up in a league’s power dynamics is a good thing. It helps keeps this rapidly evolving competition fresh, exciting, and unpredictable.
