Carlton captain Patrick Cripps leads his beaten Blues off the ground after last week’s loss to Port Adelaide. Photo: AFL MEDIA
Carlton celebrated arguably its greatest triumph on Wednesday night when it launched a new documentary by filmmaker Pete Dickson about the stunning comeback win over arch-rival Collingwood in the 1970 grand final.
The timing was apt given the Blues are up against their old enemy again on Saturday, and after three losses in their past four games, are now not only in danger of missing a top four spot, but missing out on finals altogether.
Collingwood has become a bit of a hoodoo team for Carlton in recent times, too, winning nine of their last 11 clashes, and in doing so moving ahead 132-129 on the head-to-head count.
It’s a significant role reversal historically given the Blues have beaten the Pies in five of six grand finals they’ve contested, 1915, 1938, 1979 and 1981, a constant source of bragging rights at Princes Park.
These days it’s the Pies winning the big moments between the two clubs, like their epic Round 8 clash earlier this season, when Nick Daicos kicked the winning goal with a minute left on the clock. Or the even more dramatic final round game in 2022, when Jamie Elliott’s matchwinner put the Blues out of the finals.
This time, the source of Collingwood’s motivation against the arch-rival is twofold; keeping its flickering finals hopes alive, and celebrating appropriately arguably the club’s greatest player, Scott Pendlebury, reaching the treasured 400-game milestone.
That’s the psychological roadblock for the Blues this week, and it’s considerable. But it’s a couple of statistical issues besides that, however, which while not as headline-grabbing, are potentially of even more consequence to Carlton in these last four games headed into finals.
The Blues’ statistical profile has flipped in the most fundamental markers of points scored and points conceded from last year to this. In 2023, Carlton ranked only ninth for points scored but were a stingy fourth for points against. This season, those numbers are second and 14th respectively.
Recent history suggests very strongly that last figure simply won’t hold up in terms of a realistic assault on a premiership. Indeed, not a single AFL premiership team of the 24 flags won this century has ranked any lower than sixth for points against, regardless of how prolifically they scored.
Yet this isn’t really about Carlton’s backline, which has held up relatively well (ranked eighth for opposition scores per inside 50) considering the amount of work it has had to do, the Blues only 11th for inside 50 differential and 15th for time in forward half differential.
There’s one outstanding weakness in the Blues’ armoury making things look considerably worse, and it is the much-vaunted midfield group’s failure to stop opponents scoring from stoppages.
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There’s been no more dramatic single change in the Blues’ statistical profile from last season to this than its 2023 ranking of first for points against from stoppage to its current dismal 17th.
And it’s an anomaly which looks even more stark when you consider Carlton is ranked first for defending turnovers, and top six for key midfield metrics like differentials for contested possession, clearances and groundball gets.
“With their mids, it’s all duck and no dinner sort of stuff,” said analyst Jimmy Bartel on 3AW last weekend. “They’re very good at scoring, but then when they don’t have the footy, the opposition is transitioning (from stoppage) really well.
“They spend a lot of time in their back 50. I think their defensive group is good enough, but they’re being asked to defend a lot of entries on transition, which is really difficult, because your team isn’t set up behind the footy.”
Significantly, that opposition transition is beginning in defensive midfield rather than in the back 50, current rankings showing Carlton fifth for opposition defensive 50 to forward 50 transition, but a lowly 15th from defensive midfield to the forward 50.
Does that also mean the Blues’ forwards aren’t working hard enough or pushing high enough to help support midfield defensive efforts?
“Your midfield can put the pressure on if the forwards are cutting out the (opposition) releases, and your forward 50 tackles give the mids some time to spread and cut out the releases,” says Bartel.
“They might just need to bring another forward up to the stoppage, which might mean that you mightn’t score as much, but you might stop more (opposition) scores.”
In the Blues’ run of five straight wins against Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Geelong and Richmond, they held the opposition to scores in the 70s, the problem apparently corrected.
But in two of the recent losses to GWS and the Western Bulldogs, and even in victory against North Melbourne, Carlton has conceded three of its highest tallies of 2024.
Simply, that cannot continue if the Blues are to make anything of this season. As Carlton struggles desperately to maintain the position near the top of the ladder it has held much of the season, team defence surely now must be the No.1 priority.
Fix it, and for the Blues it will be a victory of even more consequence than merely just beating their bitter foe and recent bogey team on Saturday night.
This article first appeared at ESPN.
